Southern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from January 9, 2026.

For the first time in the 104-year history of HMR, the Southern Comments are being filed this week from New Zealand, where Price Reporter Ben Stanley is visiting his family and homeland. Due to its small population and distance from the United States, New Zealand is historically a modest importer of American hardwoods.

Last year, an estimated 2.8 million board feet (MMBF) of US hardwood lumber was sent to New Zealand, a 22% decline from 2024. White Oak and Ash are by far the most popular species. This figure is down from an all-time high of 5.2 MMBF in 2021, when wealthier Kiwis were making use of pandemic-era low interest rates. The small South Pacific country is one of many nations impacted by the Trump Administration’s tariffs.

New Zealand’s forestry sector is dominated by softwoods, especially pine. More than 90% of planted forests are Radiata pine, which are almost exclusively sent to China and other Asian markets as raw logs. The manufacture of thermally modified products from Radiata pine is a growing industry, especially for decking. New Zealand’s own hardwood sector is incredibly small.

Back in the Southern region, the hardwood market is quiet. Production remains low, while the export situation is not ideal. The uptick in Chinese purchasing of Red Oak following the lessening of trade tensions between the US and China has been of little benefit to Southern producers. European markets for Southern species are not strong.

ASH

Many parts of the South have experienced an unseasonably warm stretch of weather over recent weeks, providing opportunities for lowland logging. Yet many crews spent time with family over the holiday period so the net result means little has changed in the Ash market. Prices are stable with domestic and international demand flat.

SOFT MAPLE

#2A&3A OAK

Flooring factories entered the holiday period with adequate to ample #2A&3A Oak lumber inventories and anticipated limited receipts during that period. Receipts were low, as expected, but residential and truck trailer flooring manufacturers report little difficulty procuring lumber in early January. From green to kiln dried stocks, reported prices stayed stable this week.

RED OAK

Sawmill operators are hoping for signed trade deals with China and the EU to start 2026, but there is still no indication that these will come soon. While residential flooring plant needs are stable, overall demand from the truck trailer flooring sector remains weak. Red Oak is a major export species. It could change the game for many Southern sawmills if exports picked up. However, as noted in the opening comments, Chinese demand for Southern Red Oak remains lethargic. There are no changes to any green or kiln dried listings or ranges this week.

WHITE OAK

The situation for White Oak is much the same as that for Red Oak. Market participants remain in a holding pattern with this species; business is occurring but is far from vibrant. Prices in observed activity are well represented by the published green and kiln dried figures.

POPLAR

Production and demand for Poplar have been more or less balanced in the last week. Shipments are ongoing to domestic moulding and millwork producers and also to export markets, but supplies are meeting market demand. Kiln dried prices stay stable as a result. Green prices are also unchanged.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

During the first full week of 2026, markets for most Southern industrial hardwood items have been calm, including pallet cants, framestock, and board road. However, crossties are a notable exception.

The biggest news in Southern industrials is a notable downturn in crosstie purchasing by treating operations for January delivery. HMR has received multiple reports to this effect from across the region. Given the reliance of sawmills on ties over recent years as the market for grade lumber became more unpredictable, this news is frustrating for many market participants.

The major rail companies projected steady tie buying plans at the Railway Tie Association meeting in San Antonio, Texas last October, though the impact of the potential mega merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern remains an unknown as the sector heads into 2026.

Appalachian Comments

GENERAL

Comments from January 9, 2026.

Reports about business conditions at year-end 2025 have largely carried over into early 2026. Kiln dried markets are more active than green markets but are not strong. This week did bring an uptick in shipments of orders buyers placed in December but did not want to receive until the new year, which ias a typical early January occurrence. Secondary US manufacturers are still taking a cautious approach to placing new orders, with most buying on an as-needed basis. Chinese buyers are consistently purchasing Appalachian Red Oak, Cherry, and Ash lumber, along with larger volumes of logs, particularly Walnut. Kiln dried prices did not fluctuate much this week, and the few noted increases are mostly supply driven. There is not much confidence that demand for hardwood lumber or finished goods will improve until Q2, if then.

ASH

Most recent Ash transactions have been between buyers and sellers with established business, but more so overseas than domestically. Pricing is unchanged for green stocks. In kiln dried, most listings and ranges accurately reflect reported numbers. However, information lowers the high end ranges for 6/4 and 8/4 #1C.

HARD MAPLE

Demand for Hard Maple has slowed alongside lackluster residential and commercial construction in the US, Canada, and abroad. Buyers were controlling receipts ahead of the year-end holidays and are doing the same through the first two weeks of the new year. #1C is the strongest grade in the current demand environment, followed by Fas, and then #2A. Production has edged lower over the last month, and information shows supplies of most items are closely matched with demand. Pricing is largely static in observed activity, allowing most listings and ranges to stand. However, reductions are warranted to the high end ranges for kiln dried #1&2 White 5/4 Fas and to the listing for green Unselected 4/4 #3A.

RED OAK

In December, many buyers worked to reduce year-end tax liabilities by lowering Red Oak inventories. In some years, green and kiln dried prices respond to limited seasonal interest by declining. The year-end 2025 period was relatively mild in that regard, with rising interest from China helping to offset seasonally slower domestic demand. Overall, contacts report better demand for #1C&Btr than for #2A&3A, which have slowed to truck trailer flooring plants. Notably, Red Oak has only made one Appalachian survey respondent’s list of worst-moving species over the last month. Transactions point out stable pricing for most green and kiln dried items. However, reductions are warranted to the listings for green 4/4 #1C and 4/4 #3A. Meanwhile, information lifts the low end ranges for kiln dried 4/4 #2A.

WHITE OAK

White Oak still moves fairly easily. However, supplies of green 4/4 Fas&1F exceed the market’s current needs, prompting the first reductions to those listings since late-August. Incoming price reports also lower the listing for green 4/4 #1C, marking the second decline in three weeks following steady pricing from mid-July through mid-December. The lower listing for #1C follows December reports from sawmillers that #1C seemed readily available and harder to move at desired prices. Reported prices hold all the other green listings steady. White Oak remains a bestseller among kiln dried items, but comments tend to come with the caveat that demand—while “good”—is down from stronger levels a few months ago. Reported prices are well represented by the published listings and ranges.

POPLAR

Sales contacts are experiencing steady demand for Poplar from distribution yards and from the moulding, millwork, and component sectors. Several note higher demand for the common grades than for Fas. Somewhat improved Asian business has reduced inventories of #1C, resulting in upward price pressure that lifts the kiln dried 4/4 #1C listings. No changes are necessary to any other Poplar figures.

WALNUT

Walnut has the most energy of any species this particular week in terms of demand and price increases. Producer comments are overwhelmingly positive. One stated that demand for kiln dried 4/4 #2A&Btr Walnut from China “appears very strong.” Another said demand for #1C and #2A has been strong for a month, but interest in Fas lags the common grades. The recent trend of steady green prices amid kiln dried price gains continues this week, which is opposite the trend observed during much of the fall. Reported prices drive increases to the listings and ranges for 4/4 and 5/4 #1C and #2A. The 6/4 #2A listings also advance, as do the noted ranges for 5/4 Fas and 8/4 #2A.

Northern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from January 9, 2026.

Market conditions reported by sawmills and downstream sales operations are almost identical to those reported prior to the holidays. Shipments of kiln dried lumber increased this week compared to the last two weeks of December, as they almost always do since end users and distributors usually do not want to take on additional inventory at the end of the year. However, most sales contacts indicate little improvement in new order bookings.

Many sales operations in the Upper Midwest have deemphasized export business, particularly to China. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, production is low enough that many have enough domestic business to absorb all they can offer. Secondly, Chinese buyers have shifted toward using more Appalachian and less Northern Red Oak. Finally, many Chinese buyers are not willing to pay the additional freight costs required to procure lumber from this region.

Eastern US hardwood sawmill production figures for December are not yet finalized, but there is no doubt production in 2025 will be the lowest since at least 1960. Generally speaking, lack of production is upholding prices for most Northern items, including those in low demand. Amid these circumstances, sales contacts often report more difficulty in having enough lumber to ship full loads than having too much lumber on their shelves. “Our main concern is for lack of inventory,” explained one experienced salesperson.

ASH

Production of this species at green sawmills remains subdued amid the ongoing spread of Emerald Ash Borer and increased log shipments to China. As such, green prices are showing little movement in either direction even though demand is weak from all markets except concentration yards with export programs. Orders for kiln dried Fas Ash are feast or famine depending on length, with 8-foot material difficult to move domestically and overseas but longer stock selling readily. Far Eastern markets for kiln dried #1C and #2A are performing well, and sales to end users in the Midwest are consistent though at much lower volumes compared to historic norms. Pricing information gathered this week keeps all the published green and kiln dried Ash figures intact.

ASPEN

One sales contact surveyed for this issue summed up market conditions for this species with one short phrase: “Nobody has Aspen.” While that is true, it is also true that demand is low, which is a major factor behind limited production and availability. Significant contraction in pulp and paper output is also holding down Aspen harvesting and lumber production. Many, if not most, Northern mills are avoiding Aspen log purchases because profitability is elusive when cutting this species despite recent price appreciation. Previous increases have all the green listings in order, whereas the kiln dried 4/4 #1C&Btr figures advance on higher reported prices.

BIRCH

This week brought another round of unfavorable reports about Birch. In response to a survey question asking which items are worst-sellers, one salesman replied, “Anything Yellow Birch.” Another said, “I am not bad at my job, but I cannot give unselected Yellow Birch away.” Contacts indicate natural Birch is selling even more slowly than unselected. Producers are booking orders for Sap&Btr stock on a somewhat consistent basis. Green and kiln dried prices for this species vary widely based on color selection and length. That said, the current published figures are reflective of available information for unselected lumber.

HARD MAPLE

Northern contacts surveyed this week often identified #1&2 White 4/4 Fas and 4/4 #1C Hard Maple as bestsellers. Conversely, several put multiple brown Hard Maple items in the worst-seller category. Many of those in the first group acknowledge that demand for #1&2 White 4/4 Hard Maple has moderated since early to mid-fall. Some sales operations now have unsold kiln dried 4/4 #1C, which was not the case 30 to 45 days ago. Inventories of kiln dried thick stock remain low, contributing to higher reported prices that lift the #1&2 White 6/4 and 8/4 Fas listings and ranges. Green production is reportedly holding up well for this species, whereas demand is flat. Prices are responding to these circumstances. The 6/4 and 8/4 #1C&Btr listings fall back in both color classifications. All the published Unselected #2A and #3A listings also edge down, along with the #1&2 White 4/4 #2A listing.

SOFT MAPLE

Sawmills and concentration yards have decent order files for this species, although activity is less robust now than before the holidays. Demand is much higher for #1C&Btr than for #2A and #2B. Likewise, Sap&Btr sells better than Unselected and much better than brown Soft Maple. Prices observed in the market did not change much this week. The kiln dried Sap&Btr and Unselected 4/4 #2A listings and top ends of the ranges decline, while all the other green and kiln dried figures remain intact.

RED OAK

Broadly speaking, Northern producers are weathering the general shift in Chinese purchasing from Northern toward Appalachian Red Oak. Prices in the Chinese markets are highly competitive, but enough kiln dried orders are available domestically and from other export markets to relieve most price pressure. The only changes to the published numbers in this issue subtract from the 4/4 #1C listings and low ends of the ranges. Demand for green 4/4 #1C&Btr Red Oak is sufficient to absorb developing production, but #2A&3A consumption is barely keeping up with supply. Prior adjustments have all of the green listings in order.

WHITE OAK

Total demand for this species—including domestic and overseas markets—has moderated during the last few months. Since White Oak is not abundant in this region, this trend has impacted Northern producers and resellers less than their counterparts in other regions. Still, some are struggling to move certain kiln dried items, particularly #1C and 8-foot Fas. Prices in observed business are mostly consistent with the green and kiln dried figures.

International Comments

GENERAL

Please see our graphs.