Southern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from March 6, 2026.

With the big decision by the United States Supreme Court ruling the majority of the Trump Administration’s tariffs illegal and the joint US-Israel bombing raids on Iran both occurring, it has been a busy last two weeks from a news point-of-view.

More than anything else, the biggest impact on the American hardwood industry by the two events is one of uncertainty. Despite the Court’s decision, multiple contacts who export abroad have talked up international demand right now. Chinese buyers are currently showing a renewed interest in Red and White Oak.

Just how the conflict in the Middle East will impact hardwood markets remains to be seen, but one Southern hardwood seller believes it could have impacts on both domestic and international demand.

“You worry what this war in Iran will do to economic uncertainty, both here and internationally,” he told HMR/Fastmarkets. “There is going to be an increase in fuel prices and a lot of concern around the world. You would have to say that will not be good in terms of confidence for building houses or remodeling.”

Bright spots in the Southern region this week include a healthy market for board road and mat timbers, a pause in big decreases in reported prices for crossties, and an uptick in domestic interest in high-grade Poplar.

ASH

After the first price movements of the year for green Ash last week, increased demand saw published prices for 4/4 through 6/4 #1C rise again in this issue. Kiln dried Ash prices did not change. Unusually warm late-winter weather is hovering across the South, leading to healthier logging conditions for lowland species like Ash.

BEECH

PECAN & HICKORY

SAP GUM

Green Sap Gum prices remain stable after some gains in February. Elevated interest from secondary manufacturers was responsible for the prior movement, but activity has moderated since.

SOFT MAPLE

#2A&3A OAK

A competitive residential flooring market coupled with a slowdown in buying from truck trailer flooring plants and uncertainty about tie demand have kept the #2A&3A Oak market cool to start 2026. The first week of March brought lower reported prices. Widespread tie quotas have led to an overabundance of #2A&3A Red Oak, dropping the listings for both grades in 4/4 and 5/4. All #2A&3A White Oak listings remain intact.

RED OAK

Along with reduced listings for low grade Red Oak, in 4/4 and 5/4, there are decreases for green 5/4 #1C&Btr. An oversupply is seen as the reason for the price drops. On the kiln dried side, the low ends of the 4/4 Fas ranges increase along with the high ends of the 4/4 #1C ranges. Chinese demand for Southern Red Oak has gained a bit more momentum and is thought to be responsible for upward price movement. Conversely, the listings and top sides of the ranges for 5/4 Fas decline.

WHITE OAK

Markets for green and kiln dried White Oak are generally stable. Domestic and international demand is in line with current production, leaving little movement in reported prices. The only exceptions are green 4/4 Fas&1f, which retreat again this week and are now at two-year lows.

POPLAR

While the market for green Poplar in the South is settled right now when it comes to reported prices, there is plenty of movement for kiln dried stock. The high ends of the ranges for 4/4 #1C increase, while the listings for both 5/4 Fas and 6/4 Fas fall, as do the listings and ranges for 6/4 #1C. While domestic demand is decent, key international markets are not very busy, including Vietnam.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Despite the current crosstie buying downturn, Southern industrials did not see any price deterioration in the last week. In fact, the trend has been in the opposite direction. The upper end of the Oak framestock range increases, and the listing and range for board road both rise.

Furniture plants have healthy framestock inventories, but reported prices include some higher numbers due mostly to lack of supply. Several contacts in the South are talking up the buoyant state of board road markets, as reflected in its price movement this week.

Reports show pallet cant and crosstie prices have stabilized. Shifting tie quotas, particularly in the Carolinas and Georgia, have delivered increased requirements for some mills, while others are struggling to find a taker for the middle part of the log.

Appalachian Comments

ASH

US exports of Ash lumber to China in December were the strongest since July. Sellers indicate good volumes moved there in early 2026, as well, ahead of Chinese New Year. Outside of China, however, overseas interest in this species is limited. Domestic demand is also relatively low. Mills are finding outlets for their green production, partly because overall production of this species is low. The listings for 6/4 and 8/4 #2A edge higher. Supplies of kiln dried 6/4 Fas Ash lag demand, and the listings and ranges are raised.

BASSWOOD

BEECH

BIRCH

CHERRY

In North America, there are no longer any large volume markets for this species, only modest usage by certain cabinet, furniture, millwork, and RV furnishings manufacturers. However, Chinese customers are ordering sizeable volumes of Cherry. In turn, concentration yards that ship to China are assertively purchasing green Cherry. Green prices have an upward bias, but all the listings are in order after recent gains. Meanwhile, reported prices warrant increases to the listings and ranges for kiln dried 4/4 and 5/4 Fas in the Appalachian area, and to the listings and noted ranges for 4/4 and 5/4 #1C in the North Central.

HICKORY

HARD MAPLE

Production of Hard Maple ramped up this winter, as it typically does, to avoid staining that tends to occur if logs or lumber sit for too long in spring and summer. Markets are struggling to absorb the additional production. Demand is stronger for #1C&Btr than for #2A. Prices in observed green Hard Maple transactions did not change much this week, allowing all the listings to stand. The kiln dried 4/4 #2A listings and high-end ranges decline in both color classifications.

SOFT MAPLE

Contacts listed Soft Maple more than any other species as their best mover over the last few weeks. One producer said he aggressively lowered his kiln dried Sap/Btr 4/4 #1C Soft Maple price to generate sales, then subsequently raised it after selling about a dozen truckloads, which sufficiently thinned out his inventory. The same producer said brown 5/4 Fas Soft Maple is in very high demand. Prices observed for green and kiln dried Sap&Btr and Unselected Soft Maple are clustered around the respective listings or contained within the ranges.

#2&3A OAK

New home construction and remodeling drive activity for US residential flooring manufacturers and, correspondingly, drive demand for flooring-grade Oak. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of new single-family home starts in December was the highest in nearly a year, while completions—the period when interior upfits occur—held up for a second straight month after rising 9% in October. Fastmarkets’ Repair and Remodeling Index, which measures volume of activity rather than spending, gained ground in 2025. Flooring plants are starting to build inventories of certain finished goods in expectation of seasonally stronger shipments to distributors by increasing production from their sufficiently stocked lumber yards. Separately, competition for #2A&3A Red Oak from the truck trailer flooring sector has slowed. The #2A&3A and #2A Alone Red Oak listings are in order after last week’s reductions. No changes are required to the #2A&3A White Oak figures.

RED OAK

Market activity for Red Oak is strongly influenced early in the year by exports to China. Contacts report a slight downshift in demand from China, from “strong” levels prior to Chinese New Year to “decent” or “stable” levels more recently. Domestic demand is slowly increasing but is not robust. All published green and kiln dried Red Oak figures hold steady this week. For most survey respondents, Red Oak is selling better than White Oak, especially in #1C&Btr.

WHITE OAK

US exports of White Oak lumber rose 1% in 2025 over 2024, primarily on growth to Vietnam. Year-over-year shipments to the UK were little changed, despite reports of mostly slow demand throughout the year. Transactions point out steady pricing for most green items, but supplies of 5/4 #1C exceed demand, and the listing is lowered. Downward price movement for kiln dried #1C&Btr White Oak has been commonplace recently, with availability outweighing decent demand. This week, the listings for kiln dried 4/4 #2A and the high-end ranges for 4/4 and 5/4 #1C are lowered.

POPLAR

Supplies of green #2B&Btr are sufficient to meet buyers’ needs. Reported prices are steady, allowing the listings to stand. Kiln dried demand is sufficient to keep inventories in check and most prices unchanged. However, the 4/4 #1C and #2A listings decline amid downward price and volume pressures from Vietnamese and Chinese furniture manufacturers. Information also lowers the ranges for 8/4 #2A.

WALNUT

Activity for green #2A&Btr Walnut has softened from red-hot levels. Concerns about potential price deterioration for thicker kiln dried stocks have some yards slowing or stopping purchases of the equivalent green items. However, green transactions show few changes in pricing, allowing all the listings to stand. Sales operations indicate strong demand for kiln dried 4/4 #2A Walnut, and the listings are raised to better reflect information gathered this week. All the other kiln dried figures align with previous data.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Upholstered furniture factories and frame shops are not welcoming more hardwood framestock. However, some are paying slightly higher prices because availability is low. The current ranges encompass pricing for most reported business.

The high-end range for cants falls back again, but the listing holds following last week’s decline. Recent high range figure movement coincides with some mills increasing cant production in light of strict quotas for crossties and, in some cases, lower tie purchase prices. Most pallet manufacturing operations continue to report fair demand for their finished goods.

Activity at a certain Appalachian tie yard is painfully slow, according to a longtime employee. Quotas are being strictly enforced. The 7x9 crosstie price ranges hold steady in each sub-region coming off recent decreases to each low-end figure. One potential silver lining in an otherwise tough tie market is that black tie insertions tend to increase in spring and summer, the seasons when most capital improvement projects occur. Even though potential mergers are restraining capital expenditures, railroads must do at least some track maintenance.

Weekly US field production of crude oil has been trending higher since late-2020, reaching a record high in January 2026. That upturn hasn’t resulted in noticeably higher demand for Appalachian board road, which is used to support heavy equipment at drilling operations. This suggests more oil is being produced from existing rigs or advancements in drilling operations require less board road. That said, some Southern board road producers are experiencing better business. Reported board road prices require no changes to the existing listing and range.