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Southern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from October 16, 2026.

Log supply remains the major talking point among Southern hardwood market participants. Despite recent weather being favorable for logging in much of the region, contacts from Arkansas to South Carolina report serious log shortages. Several mills are entirely out of logs to cut. Southern Mississippi is a notable exception, with area sources saying they are in decent shape.

“Diesel prices are brutal, and pine demand means getting folks to move hardwood logs is very hard,” an Alabama sawmill operator told HMR/Fastmarkets. “It’s a major worry. I’ve been in the hardwood business for 27 years—this is the first time we’ve been out of logs by the start of October.”

Busier cant and crosstie markets are the main news from a price perspective this week. Export business remains slow, with certain contacts describing the Chinese market as “dead.”

ASH

Despite good logging weather, the supply of Ash logs to Southern sawmills is, like other species, reduced right now. As a result, several green Ash thicknesses and grades notch price increases, namely 6/4 Fas&1f, 8/4 Fas&1f, 5/4 #1C, 5/4 #2A, and 6/4 #2A. Reports about international interest in Ash are not as upbeat from Southern exporters as from those in other producing regions. That said, area contacts indicate 4/4 Fas is moving well for export.

BEECH

COTTONWOOD

MIXED HARDWOODS

SAP GUM

SOFT MAPLE

#2A&3A OAK

With Southern residential flooring manufacturers relatively conservative with lumber purchases, truck trailer flooring plants as well as residential flooring plants outside the region have played a larger role in #2A&3A Red and White Oak markets this year. Truck trailer flooring operations are still known to be buying in decent volumes, but production of 4/4 and 5/4 #2A&3A Oak adequately meets their needs along with the needs of residential flooring plants. The listings for #2A&3A Red Oak and White Oak hold at previous levels.

RED OAK

The Southern Red Oak market remains largely balanced for both green and kiln dried stocks, though the continued decline of green 4/4 Fas&1f prices catches the eye. At $930 per thousand board feet ($/MBF), 4/4 Fas is now at its lowest published listing since December 2024. Domestic and international interest in kiln dried Red Oak is cool, especially for #1C&Btr. Reported prices drive decreases to the lower ends of the 4/4 Fas ranges and both sides of the 4/4 #1C ranges.

WHITE OAK

White Oak has been a frustrating species for Southern sawmill operators in 2026. Few sources talk up any grade or thickness as a star performer. “Residential flooring is slow, meaning it’s getting hard to find a home for #2A,” one contact told HMR/Fastmarkets. “#1C is not doing well, either.” While the green listings stand pat, declining international demand—especially from Chinese buyers—leads to several downward price movements for kiln dried stock. The upper ends of the 5/4 Fas ranges retreat, as do the listings and noted range figures for 5/4 #1C and 4/4 #2A.

PECAN & HICKORY

Residential flooring plants are showing more interest in Pecan & Hickory. Reported prices necessitate increases to the listings for 4/4 and 5/4 #2A and #2B this week. At $490/MBF, the listing for green 4/4 #2A is at its highest since November 2023.

POPLAR

While green Poplar prices are relatively settled, overall, contacts reporting to HMR/Fastmarkets indicate an elevated interest in Fas&1f from Southern secondary manufacturers. “They are wanting more Fas than #1C right now,” one area green mill operator said. “You can sell it as quickly as you can find it, but the price isn’t that high.” The listings for green 8/4 #1C&Btr rise, while the listings and both sides of the ranges for kiln dried 4/4 Fas drop. Meanwhile, the upper end of the ranges for 4/4 #1C and listings for 4/4 #2A advance.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

While cant prices in the Appalachian and Northern regions increased throughout the summer, Southern sawmills have experienced a sluggish cant market for the majority of 2026. High diesel costs meant shipping Southern cants to other markets has not been an option, either. The worm is turning though, with reported prices warranting increases to the cant listing and range this week.

Lifted crosstie quotas and elevated purchasing by tie treaters are being celebrated by sawmills that were seriously impacted by the sector’s downturn this year. The lower and upper ends of the range for 7x9 crossties west of the Mississippi River increase. Board road and mat timber markets are busy, though pricing is stable. The Oak and Mixed Species framestock ranges stay unchanged.

Appalachian Comments

GENERAL

Comments from October 16, 2026.

Concerns about actual or anticipated log supply shortages—and the subsequent potential impacts on lumber production—are increasing. Wet weather-related poor logging conditions have contributed to the concerns. So has staining in logs that didn’t find homes in a timely manner during the heat of summer. But there are issues beyond logging seasonality. Some mills are working to build log decks for winter. However, others are not building inventories due to log prices, cash flow issues, and concerns that lumber sales prices won’t be high enough to offset production and shipping costs.

ASH

Production of this species remains constrained by the impacts of the Emerald Ash Borer. “Ash business in our area is about finished due to the borer,” a sawmiller in New York said. Buyers are readily accepting developing green supplies at firm prices. Demand for kiln dried stock is good, primarily from export markets. Inventories remain thin, and steady reported prices hold all published figures in check.

BASSWOOD

Despite Basswood’s small percentage of total sawmill production, supplies of green 4/4 Fas&1f are outpacing limited demand, and the listings are reduced by $10 per thousand board feet ($/MBF). Reported kiln dried prices are in line with prior weeks, keeping all the listings and ranges steady.

BEECH

BIRCH

CHERRY

Green Cherry production has largely adjusted to yard buyers’ reduced needs, and their subsequent kiln dried production is also more closely aligned with lower Chinese demand. However, downward price pressures remain evident in Appalachian green 4/4 Fas&1f transactions, prompting $30/MBF reductions to the listings. No changes are required for any kiln dried figures in either subregion.

HICKORY

Hickory moves well in all regions, with recent sales momentum in the Northern and Southern regions following several months of good activity in the Appalachian. Increases to certain green and kiln dried items in recent weeks are sufficient to keep all listings and ranges intact in this edition.

HARD MAPLE

Production of this species outpaced softening demand in spring and summer, resulting in slow-but-steady declines to green and kiln dried #1C&Btr prices across all thicknesses in both color classifications. More recently, efforts by logging operations and sawmill operators to limit output have been successful, aligning supply with reduced demand. Comments about this species have turned slightly positive, relative to the overwhelmingly negative tone through summer. Yet, reported transactions warrant no changes to existing published green and kiln dried figures.

SOFT MAPLE

Sawmill output of both Soft Maple and Hard Maple was higher than in recent summers, partly because elevated log export volumes of certain other species resulted in more Maple logs available for sawing. Increased volumes relative to demand intensified competition and prompted price reductions. Supply and demand are more balanced in the fall than summer, however, with sales “stronger” for the common grades than for the uppers. Reported green prices are consistent with previous transactions, keeping all figures intact for both Sap&Btr and Unselected. However, downward bias is still evident in reported kiln dried Sap&Btr 4/4 Fas prices, and the listings are lowered. Meanwhile, information supports lifting the low-end ranges for Sap&Btr 4/4 #1C and #2A.

#2&3A OAK

Demand for residential Oak flooring is presently in a lull, according to industry contacts. Flooring plant buyers are having no issues procuring #2A&3A Red Oak or White Oak at replacement volumes. With production surveys pointing at an uptick in total sawmill output in September—and with some mills receiving fewer purchase orders for White Oak from residential flooring operations—it is reasonable to expect 4/4 #2A&3A prices to decline. However, sales operations have more options for the same part of the log in the fall than at any other time of the year. Transactions warrant no reductions to the 4/4 through 8/4 #2A&3A Red Oak or White Oak listings this week, and the listing for 4/4 #2A Alone Red Oak also holds.

RED OAK

Red Oak production is sufficient to meet the combination of fair domestic demand alongside the slowdown in purchasing by China, lack of energy from Europe coming off its vacation season, and ongoing shipping issues to Middle Eastern markets. That said, Red Oak still appears on some sellers’ lists of best-moving species, primarily for 4/4 Fas. But, nearly as many contacts list Red Oak among their worst-moving species, also for Fas. Downard price pressures are mostly prevalent for the upper grades. Information necessitates reductions to the listings for green 4/4 and 8/4 Fas&1f and kiln dried 5/4 Fas and 6/4 #1C. The only increases lift the low-end ranges for 4/4 Fas.

WHITE OAK

Mixed market conditions for White Oak continue. Sales remain sluggish for 7- and 8-foot lengths, while 9-foot and longer and specialty items draw decent interest. The downward price trends for several items pause, at least for this week. Prior pauses over several weeks have resulted in claims that price floors must have been reached or soon would be. However, limited competition for logs from stave markets has resulted in ample White Oak log decks at sawmills, and lumber production that has been more than adequate to meet the market’s needs. Sawmills are currently finding homes for green production at prices consistent with the listings. Kiln dried transactions are occurring at prices well represented by nearly all listings and ranges. The lone exceptions lift the low-end ranges for 4/4 Fas.

POPLAR

Producers report steady domestic demand for Fas but sluggish sales of #1C and #2A to Vietnam and China. Most reported green prices are steady and hold the listings in check, but information warrants $20/MBF declines to the listings for 12/4 and 16/4 Fas&1f. Reports received this week result in all kiln dried figures carrying over from last week. The relative lack of change suggests a certain level of steadiness that sometimes characterizes Poplar prices. However, conversations with producers reveal rising concerns about potential supply shortages. An exporting concentration yard operator said its green receipts are down by one-third because some supplying mills are unwilling to purchase Poplar logs. “As a result, we don’t get as much green as we usually get and that means we won’t be loading some kilns,” he explained. “Our kiln dried production does move out, but we have less of it to move. We would like to pay green mills more but we can’t get more on the dry side.”

WALNUT

Markets are absorbing total green Walnut production at steady prices that keep all green figures intact. However, current kiln dried supplies of certain thicker-stock #1C&Btr items outweigh demand, and this week’s surveys confirm the shift toward excess supply. Kiln dried 4/4 through 8/4 #2A Walnut is trading at prices consistent with the listings or within the respective ranges. However, transactions warrant reductions to the listings and noted ranges for 5/4 and 6/4 #1C&Btr, and 8/4 Fas. Transactions also include higher numbers for 4/4 Fas that warrant bumps to the low ends of the ranges.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Demand for Oak and Mixed Species framestock is keeping pace with limited developing supplies of well-air-dried material. No change to either range is required.

The 8.4% increase in US durable goods shipments year to date through August helps explain why pallet manufacturers have reported steady-to-stronger demand for their finished goods and similarly explains steady-to-stronger demand for cants this year. Reported cant prices lift the high end of the range in this issue.

Mills equipped to saw ties have switched from reducing production and stacking ties to moving their full production. Because higher reported tie prices remain within the existing ranges, no changes are warranted to the ranges.

Demand for board road material is meeting the market’s needs. Reported prices hold in this edition following last week’s increase to the listing and low-end range figure.

Northern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from October 16, 2026.

It was fairly steady this week in terms of pricing in the Northern region, though there are some notable movements: The kiln dried 4/4 Fas Ash listings post their first decreases in more than five months, ending three straight months of persistent gains; and the listings for Fas Soft Maple slump further, with decreases to the green Sap&Btr 4/4 and 5/4 listings and the kiln dried 4/4 Fas listings in both color sorts.

High freight costs remain a major headache for market participants, and some contacts report difficulties with containership availability for their exports. The US on-highway diesel price averaged $6.20/gal on October 5, according to the US EIA, up from $3.81/gal in late February and $3.71/gal a year ago.

Log supply is steady or shrinking in much of the Northern region, and many market participants report extremely low availability. However, producers with their own logging crews are doing better in terms of supply, with some recently reporting full decks. Overall, dwindling log supply has been reported by numerous contacts across all three regions and is something to watch closely as winter approaches.

ASH

Kiln dried Ash, especially #1C&Btr, continues to move well for producers in the Northern region. Domestic demand is holding firm, and sizeable volumes are still heading to China, as was the case throughout this summer. One contact in the Upper Midwest, however, said they’re having more difficulty moving 7-to-8-foot stock than 10-to-12-foot stock. In terms of pricing this week, a downward bias is observed in reported 4/4 Fas prices, necessitating a reduction of $55 per thousand board feet ($/MBF) to the net tally listing. While most producers did not cut sales prices, there was enough softness in the market to require this decrease. Still, at $2,025/MBF, the listing is $175/MBF higher now than at the start of 2026. All other green and kiln dried listings and ranges are steady this week.

ASPEN

Comments from Northern producers about kiln dried Aspen have varied of late. Some are experiencing a healthy market and are moving their production at steady-to-firmer prices, while others have had to reduce their offer prices in order to generate interest from buyers. Overall, a lower trading range is observed this week for 4/4 Fas stock, dropping both sides of the ranges. However, the mixed sentiment in the market holds that listing flat, despite the softer range. On the green side, consistent reported prices hold all the listings steady across all grades. A few market participants have told HMR/Fastmarkets that weak demand for pulpwood is helping keep production of the species tight by disincentivizing logging. The Northern green Aspen listings are up sizably since the start of the year, though they have been mostly steady since the spring, outside of a few bumps to the #2A listing.

BASSWOOD

The Basswood market is well balanced in the North, as low production is meeting limited demand. Reported prices for green stock have been mostly stable throughout 2026. Likewise, outside of some gains during the first quarter, there hasn’t been much price movement for Northern kiln dried Basswood this year. The only adjustments this week are decreases to the kiln dried 4/4 #1C low-end range numbers. Some producers are struggling to sell the species, but those with established customer bases are moving their production at steady prices. Contacts have told HMR/Fastmarkets that not much #2A or #2B Basswood is being produced because low-grade logs are being used to cut pallet cants and lumber, which usually only happens when supplies derived from harder species are low.

BEECH

BIRCH

NORTHERN SOFT GREY ELM

HARD MAPLE

Hard Maple was one of the most frequently listed best-sellers by surveyed Northern producers during the summer, but recently it is more often listed as a worst-seller. Markets for the upper grades, both green and kiln dried, have been slumping since July/August amid excess supply and a slowdown in domestic purchasing. Demand for #1C and #2A has been stronger than for the upper grades, according to contacts, and, consequently, prices for those items have been more stable. This week, all Northern Hard Maple listings, both green and kiln dried, hold steady. However, lower trading ranges are observed for kiln dried 5/4 Fas and #1C in both color sorts, necessitating reductions to those numbers.

SOFT MAPLE

Excess supply continues to weigh on green and kiln dried upper grade Soft Maple prices in the Northern region. This week, the green Sap&Btr 4/4 and 5/4 Fas&Sel listings are reduced, along with the kiln dried 4/4 Fas listings in both color sorts. Otherwise, no adjustments are necessary for any green or kiln dried numbers. Prices for Soft Maple uppers have been sliding since the spring amid lackluster demand for Sap&Btr and Unselected stock. A bit of stability was observed in the late summer and early fall, but reported prices are again slipping this week. The kiln dried Fas net tally listing is down by $360/MBF since late April. Similar to Hard Maple, kiln dried #1C and #2A Soft Maple are moving better than Fas for Northern producers, with several contacts describing demand for those grades as “good” or “decent.” One contact in the Upper Midwest told HMR/Fastmarkets they are oversold on kiln dried Sap&Btr #1C lumber.

RED OAK

All green and kiln dried Red Oak listings and range numbers are unmoved this week in the Northern region. The kiln dried Fas net tally listing has held steady at $1,800/MBF for more than a month following persistent declines during the second half of the summer. Broadly speaking, markets for Northern #1C&Btr Red Oak, both green and kiln dried, are soft. Domestic demand is decent though has slowed a bit from the summertime. However, the Chinese market is weak and highly price competitive. A rebound in Asia-bound exports is likely needed to reverse the downward trend evident in recent months. Conversely, markets for #2A&3A are steady-to-firmer due to tight supply.

WHITE OAK

This week, the kiln dried 4/4 #2A listings are reduced, the only adjustments to any Northern White Oak numbers. Prices for Northern green #1C&Btr White Oak have been fairly steady since the middle of the summer, as a long-awaited price floor may have finally been reached following more than a year-and-a-half of persistent declines. While reported green Fas&Sel prices have yet to show any upward bias, the 4/4 #1C listing posted its first gain since June 2024 last week; green #2A&3A prices also rose during the latter part of the summer due to tightened supply. On the dry side, Fas is the only grade with much energy from a producer’s perspective; some are seeing strong demand for the grade, and recent reported prices have broadly been steady-to-firmer.

PALLET LUMBER, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

The complexion of Northern industrial markets did not change much this week. Pallet cants, pallet lumber, and crossties continue to move well for regional producers at consistent prices, and firmness in those markets is eating into production of grade lumber. This week, no adjustments are necessary for any pallet material listings or ranges or the 7x9 crosstie range.

The board road listing and range are also unmoved in the Northern region, with contacts reporting steady market conditions. Much of the upturn in board road activity is concentrated in the South.

Oak Strip Flooring Comments

General

Comments from October 16, 2026.

Private expenditures on new single-family housing construction and remodeling rose 1.2% in August from July but were 5.4% lower than a year earlier. Of the total $766.5 billion invested in August (seasonally adjusted annual rate), $403.3 billion went to new single-family units. That amount was up 0.2% from July but down 3.5% from a year ago. Investments in new single-family housing and remodeling are important to demand for Oak strip flooring. The latter accounts for the largest share of Oak flooring sales, while the former is a sizeable demand driver as well.

Although spending levels remain elevated by historical standards, they have been trending lower since October 2024, with dollars falling off noticeably in April 2026 and hovering at three-year lows in subsequent months. This decline coincides with mortgage rates turning higher in April and surging to a nearly three-year high of 7.40% in early October. This interplay could be coincidence but appears to be correlation.

Considering the majority of private residential construction dollars are earmarked for new housing, trends in permits and in the backlog of homes under construction bear watching. Seasonal weather factors will also come into play soon in the Northeast and Midwest. In August, single-family new home building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 878,000 units—a 12-month low—while 589,000 units were under various stages of construction, an amount that has been very stable all year.

Single-family home completions fell for the second straight month in August, to the slowest pace of the year. A declining rate of completions means fewer single-family homes are finishing construction. The latter stages of construction are when flooring installations occur. Accordingly, a decline in that stage portends reduced demand for hardwood flooring, slower shipments to distributors, and, potentially, price decreases unless production aligns with demand.

Following four decent months, flooring market energy has dissipated in October. Some contacts are reporting their first demand lulls since the Fourth of July holiday period. Overall orders remain more consistent for Red Oak than White Oak flooring. Downward pressures are once again evident in reported Sel&Btr White Oak prices, prompting reductions to all listings and most range figures.

International Comments

GENERAL

Please see our graphs.