Southern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from January 16, 2026.

Since 2019, the railway tie sector has been the “hero” of the American hardwood industry. In the last six years, total hardwood consumption fell from 8.327 billion board feet (BBF) to just 5.436 BBF, a 34.7% decline. Of all the sectors that use US hardwood grade lumber and industrial products, only railway tie consumption increased in that time, up 5.3% from 860 to 906 million board feet. Sawmills, particularly across the South, have turned towards crossties as the most reliable earner in the industry. It is something the sector is proud about, especially in uncertain economic times. Yet rocky times may be ahead for railway ties in 2026.

Multiple industry contacts across the Southern region have noted a pronounced downturn in tie purchases to start 2026, leaving many area sawmill operators to wonder what their ‘bread and butter’ might be this year. Tie buyers who are still purchasing have reported increased calls from mill operators asking if they will take their crossties. Prior contracts and relationships are taking obvious precedence, leaving several operators ‘high and dry.’ “We’re telling sawmills we can only take so much,” one crosstie buyer told HMR. “It’s a real concern for our sector.”

Annual industry estimates for total ties are down significantly, with the preparation for potential mergers between major rail networks given as the probable cause for the contraction. This all comes only months after the Railway Tie Association meeting in San Antonio, where railroads projected steady tie buying this year. Many railroads had built up strong inventories of ties to close out 2025.

One respected contact in the tie sector said railroads may feel they have a “safety net” with pine or composite ties, leaving them feeling more confident of shunning hardwood ties. Another sector participant told HMR he expects the purchasing pendulum to swing back in time but is concerned about the damage these cutbacks in purchases could do in the short-term. “You worry that sawmills will close because of this,” he said.

ASH

The unseasonably warmer winter weather came to a halt in most parts of the South as temperatures fell last weekend. If they hang around, continued cold temperatures will impact lowland logging opportunities. For now, however, the Ash market remains balanced, ensuring the first three weeks of 2026 pass without a price change for the species.

BEECH

PECAN & HICKORY

MIXED SOFT HARDWOODS

SAP GUM

SOFT MAPLE

#2A&3A OAK

Secondary manufacturers have ample #2A&3A Oak inventories, with the majority building them up before the holiday period began. Residential and truck trailer flooring manufacturers are not struggling to find the lumber they need at the moment, however #2A&3A Oak prices, in both green and kiln dried stocks, remain steady.

RED OAK

With Red Oak a crucial export species, an injection of international demand would be a fine way for many hardwood sawmills to start 2026. Yet with no major international trade deals appearing likely in the short-term, and Chinese purchasing of this species focused on the Appalachian region, the market for Southern Red Oak is flat. Domestically, secondary manufacturers have all the Red Oak they need and are buying on a replacement basis. There is little price movement in green or kiln dried stock as a result.

WHITE OAK

With limited change in international demand, White Oak is in the same situation as Red Oak. Prices are holding mostly steady, with some exceptions. Improved demand drives increases for green 8/4 Fas&1f, while kiln dried 4/4 #1C sees both its lower and upper ranges fall. This is due to a drop in interest from buyers.

POPLAR

The most significant price movements in the South this week are for Poplar. A bump in demand drives increases in green #1C and #2A for 4/4 through 8/4, while a slight pullback in interest for kiln dried 4/4 #1C Poplar sees its lower ranges drop.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Apart from ties, markets for Southern industrial hardwood products remain flat into the second half of January. Published prices for pallet cants, framestock, and board road are all unchanged. A trusted industry source told HMR that the pallet market—traditionally a good economic indicator—is “absolutely flat.” He has noticed overproduction of mat timbers in the Southern region. Despite a considerable downturn in tie buying, reported prices for crossties on both sides of the Mississippi are unchanged, for now.

Appalachian Comments

ASH

Ash business softened for some sellers at year-end and has remained slow through the first two weeks of 2026. However, large volumes of Ash are not being produced due to log quality and availability issues related to invasive species. Consequently, many mills have reduced Ash production and others have stopped sawing it altogether. So, while demand for this species is relatively slow, supplies do not exceed the market’s needs, and prices are mostly stable. The only changes this week reduce the listings for kiln dried 6/4 #2A.

BASSWOOD

Market energy for this species is evident in the Northern region but not in Appalachia. Limited production aligns with lukewarm demand, keeping all published green and kiln dried figures unchanged this week.

BEECH

BIRCH

CHERRY

Producers of this species have benefitted from better demand in the last few months than during most of 2025, primarily because trade tensions with China have cooled since the end of October. Some yards that let inventories dwindle when trade tensions were elevated are now purchasing replacement stocks for export to China, with some sellers noting “hot” demand from China. Separately, domestic business remains weak. Prior adjustments have most of the published figures in order. However, green Appalachian 4/4 Fas&1f prices still show upward momentum, and the listings are raised.

HICKORY

Activity for Hickory is heavily influenced by interest from the solid wood flooring and cabinet industries. The former is seasonally slow following mostly stable demand in 2025, while the latter is also slow coming off lower-than-expected demand last year. That said, some yard contacts state that Hickory is one of the few species they are actively pursuing coming out of the holidays, in addition to Red Oak and Cherry. Green Hickory supplies are aligned with demand. Meanwhile, information supports gains to the low end ranges for kiln dried 4/4 #1C along with reductions to the listings and high end ranges for 4/4 #2A.

HARD MAPLE

As temperatures cooled this past fall, sawmills continued to expedite Hard Maple production due to its stain-prone nature. Production briefly oversupplied markets, but a late-fall sales uptick was sufficient to curb inventory growth. The pendulum has since swung back, again, to slow US and Canadian demand. Information lowers the listings for green 4/4 Fas&1f and #2A in both color designations. Reductions to the listings for kiln dried Unselected 4/4 #2A are also warranted.

SOFT MAPLE

Soft Maple is among the best-moving species in a slow overall hardwood market. Contacts report good sales of 4/4 #1C&Btr in the Sap&Btr color selection. Brown 4/4 Fas Soft Maple is also selling well for some producers. Demand isn’t carrying over into thicker stock items. Inventory growth is not problematic, overall, but is showing up for certain Sap&Btr and Unselected items. Part of this is due to normal end-of-year inventory reductions and market uncertainties that often accompany the early part of a new year. The green 6/4 #1C and kiln dried 4/4 #1C listings are reduced in both color sorts, but all the other figures remain intact.

#2&3A OAK

Purchasing trends in January compared to December are mixed among truck trailer flooring manufacturers. Lower demand from the residential side is a function of both seasonality and uncertainty about business conditions carrying over into 2026. Several plants issued fewer purchase orders for #2A&3A Oak in January than in December. Many also lowered purchase prices, since supplies currently exceed demand. The listings for green 4/4 #2A&3A Red Oak decline, as does the listing for 4/4 #2A Alone Red Oak. Upward price pressure for material closer to the center of the log is generally lacking from other sectors, contributing to the #2A&3A Red Oak declines. Prices for #2A&3A are under less pressure for White Oak than Red Oak. The #2A&3A White Oak listings hold steady in all thicknesses.

RED OAK

Kiln dried orders are moving primarily to China, but some is also shipping to regular customers in Europe and the Middle East. China’s late-year 2025 Red Oak purchasing uptick reduced on-hand inventories. Reported kiln dried 4/4 #1C prices have upward momentum that lifts the listings and ranges, and the listings for 5/4 #1C Red Oak also rise. The low ends of the ranges for 6/4 #1C and 4/4 #2A advance as well. The only kiln dried reductions drop the low end ranges for 8/4. Residential flooring plants have slowed receipts of green Red Oak. Reported prices warrant reductions to the listings for 4/4 #1C and #2A&3A. The listing for #2A Alone also declines.

WHITE OAK

Domestic and foreign interest in White Oak is sufficient to absorb production of most grades and thicknesses. However, demand for green 4/4 #1C&Btr and kiln dried 4/4 Fas is not keeping pace with supply. Those listings are lowered. While sales of random length White Oak have cooled over the last few months, it is much easier to sell random length material than full loads of 8-foot despite large discounts for 8-foot stock.

POPLAR

Poplar supplies are aligned to the market’s needs. This follows uncharacteristic gaps between supply and demand at various times in 2025, including the spring, when markets wanted more lumber but logs were scarce. Prior changes have all green figures in order. Most kiln dried price reports are steady and grouped around the respective listings or are contained within the ranges. However, reported information shows upward price momentum for kiln dried 4/4 #1C, and the listings rise again this week, with gains attributed to controlled production and stronger reported interest from Chinese and Vietnamese buyers.

WALNUT

Many sawmills continue to sell Walnut logs rather than sawing them, telling us that log sales are more profitable even as lumber prices have been rising. Near-record Walnut log exports year-over-year through October limited lumber production, resulting in shortages and another round of green price gains. Information drives increases to all the green listings except for 8/4 #1C. In kiln dried, price bumps are occurring mainly for 4/4 and 5/4, because Vietnamese sawmills are reportedly producing considerably more 6/4 and 8/4 lumber than thinner stock. Gathered information advances the listings and noted ranges for 4/4 Fas, 5/4 Fas, 5/4 #1C, and 4/4 through 6/4 #2A. The high end ranges for 4/4 #1C also gain ground.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

There is no improvement in market conditions for Oak and Mixed Species framestock in early 2026, continuing the trend of poor conditions that existed throughout 2025. Price reports are scarce but mostly within the published ranges.

There is a steady flow of pallet cants from sawmills to end users, and a similarly steady flow of pallets sold to manufacturers shipping their finished goods. Reported cant prices are centered on the listing or within the range.

Despite concerns about elevated inventories of 7x9 crossties and lower potential needs in 2026 that correspond with the proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger, contacts state they are shipping their full quotas. Reported prices are flat, allowing the ranges to stand.

Demand for board road is slow, according to survey respondents. Sawmill output currently meets the market’s limited needs. Information keeps the listing and range intact.