Southern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from February 27, 2026.

While the US Supreme Court’s ruling that the Trump Administration’s sweeping tariffs are illegal will have little short-term impact on the hardwood industry in the South, it will be welcomed by many sawmills and yards who export their products.

President Trump’s trade conflict has created unfavorable overall commercial conditions for those doing business internationally. With the last of the Administration’s current major tariffs due to lift by July, some contacts hope increased trade certainty could have positive flow-ons.

Though unrelated to the Court’s decision, a trusted concentration yard contact reported strong business over the last week with an increase in demand from China and the EU. He described Hickory, Poplar, and Maple as selling well internationally right now, while Ash was also “doing great.” The contact was hopeful the kiln dried White Oak market had “hit bottom” and was on its way up again.

Despite some upward movement for green #1C&Btr Ash and Fas&1f Red Oak this week, the grade lumber market remains cool in the South. Reported crosstie prices stabilized, allowing many area mills to breathe a little easier as the impacts of the tie buying downturn hit many hard over the last two months.

A number of mills are turning their excess low-grade lumber into pallet material, a market that is, so far, incorporating the increased supply without major disruptions. Several contacts also report good board road business lately. “If you’re listening to your customers and getting them what they want, you should be doing alright,” the yard contact told HMR.

ASH

For the first time in 2026, there is notable movement in green Ash prices. The 4/4 through 8/4 #1C&Btr listings are all raised to better align with reported information. More settled weather is positively impacting lowland logging in the South, leading to more Ash being harvested this week. There are no price changes for kiln dried Ash.

BEECH

COTTONWOOD

PECAN & HICKORY

MIXED HARDWOODS

SAP GUM

After two straight weeks of increases, green Sap Gum prices hold steady in this edition. Those price increases came from slightly elevated demand from secondary manufacturers alongside limited production, but the balance has evened out this week.

SOFT MAPLE

#2A&3A OAK

The combination of a competitive residential flooring market with a downturn in purchasing by truck trailer flooring plants ensured reported prices for lower grade Oak stayed stable this week. After a slow price buildup late last year, prices for #2A&3A Red Oak and White Oak have plateaued to open 2026.

RED OAK

Increased interest from concentration yards and secondary manufacturers continues to push up prices for 4/4 Fas&1f. At $1010/mbf, 4/4 Fas is now the highest it has been since mid-May last year. There are no other price increases for green Red Oak. On the kiln dried side, increased international demand, especially from China, drives increases to the listings for 4/4 #1C&Btr as well as both ends of the ranges for 4/4 Fas. The upper ends of the ranges for 4/4 #1C also register gains.

WHITE OAK

Domestic markets for kiln dried White Oak are not very busy, and exports are only fair. However, combined domestic and international demand is sufficient to keep inventories of most items at manageable levels. Markets are absorbing green White Oak production, but Fas&1f prices are under downward pressure. The 4/4 Fas&1f listings drop this week. The decline to $2300/mbf places 4/4 Fas at its lowest level in two years.

POPLAR

Higher reported prices drive a number of changes to the green Poplar listings. All #1C and #2A prices, 4/4 through 8/4, increase, while 4/4 #2B also receives a small bump. Stronger receipts are not playing out the same way on the kiln dried side of the equation. The list prices and both ends of the ranges fall for 4/4 Fas, as do the listings for 5/4 Fas.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Markets for industrial products have been sluggish in the South this week. Area upholstered furniture plants have decent framestock inventories. Yet, some framestock suppliers are garnering prices above the previous 4/4 Mixed Species range. Accordingly, its upper end is raised.

After several weeks of crosstie ranges on the eastern side of the Mississippi trending downward—as tie buyers reduced orders and set strict quotas—7x9 crosstie prices stabilized this week. Despite contacts reporting good business for crane and digging mats, there is no change to the board road listing or range.

Appalachian Comments

#2&3A OAK

Flooring manufacturers purchased slightly less 4/4 #2A&3A Red Oak in February than January, while certain truck trailer flooring plants have become less assertive with purchasing. Truck trailer orders were flat in January from December, sustaining the momentum reported in December. Trailer production gains in January aligned with seasonal expectations, but production still hovered close to the lowest levels since Q4 2010, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. Amid these circumstances, and with activity on the residential flooring side sluggish, the listings for 4/4 through 8/4 #2A&3A and 4/4 #2A Alone Red Oak are lowered. No changes are required to the listings for #2A&3A White Oak.

RED OAK

Lower total sawmill production in January reduced developing supplies of Red Oak. At the same time, demand for certain kiln dried Red Oak items is strong enough to add upward price pressures. Reported prices for kiln dried 5/4 Fas and 4/4 #1C move higher this week, warranting increases to the listings. The low sides of the ranges for 8/4 #1C also rise. Cutbacks in production of some residential wood flooring items have reduced the volume of #2A&3A Red Oak needed at some plants. Truck trailer flooring plants ramped up Red Oak purchases for a time, but some have again reined in receipts. Supplies of several green items exceed demand, resulting in reductions to the listings for green 4/4 #1C, 4/4 through 8/4 #2A&3A, and 4/4 #2A Alone Red Oak.

WHITE OAK

Supply and demand for many green White Oak items are balanced. This is not the case with 4/4 and 5/4 Fas&1f, however, and the listings are reduced to better align with recently reported prices. Yards are monitoring their receipts of 4/4 and 5/4 #1C&Btr as kiln dried prices continue their downward trend. One buyer said he might not purchase any 5/4 or 6/4 White Oak in March unless kiln dried markets warm up. Reported 5/4 Fas and 4/4 #1C prices have fallen, necessitating reductions to the listings. Sales of 8-foot Fas White Oak remain slow even at prices several hundred dollars below those of 9-foot and longer stock.

Northern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from February 27, 2026.

Most hardwood industry members surveyed this week welcomed the US Supreme Court’s decision that the Trump Administration does not have the authority to impose broad tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Exporters, in particular, are hopeful that the removal of these tariffs will stimulate international trade. Immediately after the SCOTUS announcement, President Trump announced a 10% all-encompassing tariff on imports, though by law that can only remain in effect for 150 days pending Congressional approval.

The SCOTUS ruling itself; the President’s response and other potential actions by the Administration; lawsuits already filed regarding tariff refunds; and ongoing questions about non-IEEPA tariffs have created confusion about implications for the hardwood lumber industry. HMR will continue to investigate and report on this issue.

ASH

Tree mortality resulting from Emerald Ash Borer and brisk log exports continue to hamper Ash lumber production from the Northeast to the Upper Midwest. The combination of limited availability and somewhat higher demand from exporting concentration yards is constraining lumber production and exerting upward pressure on green prices. All the listings notch gains for the second straight week. Ash is a fairly popular species with secondary manufacturers in the Far East, particularly China. Exporters serving that region have ample orders for #1C and #2A. Domestic end users and distribution yards are controlling kiln dried Ash purchases. The 4/4 #2A&Btr listings and ranges accurately reflect information received from buyers and sellers.

ASPEN

BASSWOOD

Eastern US hardwood sawmill production fell to a historic low in January. In the North, production has shown only incremental growth in February due to unfavorable logging conditions resulting from warming temperatures. Since Basswood comprises a much smaller share of area production than other species like Hard Maple and Red Oak, the lack of production is straining availability. In addition, the last several weeks have brought a modest upturn in demand for certain Basswood items. Sales operations are seeking and, in cases, obtaining price increases on new orders. Higher reported prices advance the kiln dried 4/4 through 9/4 #1C&Btr listings and noted ranges. Green prices are well represented by the respective listings.

BEECH

BIRCH

Markets for Birch remain in the doldrums. As such, logging and sawmill operations in the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada are trying to limit harvesting and lumber production, to the extent possible. While green Birch is still readily available, efforts to control production have brought greater pricing stability. All the listings remain at prior levels in this issue. On the kiln dried side, inventories are generally ample or elevated for most unselected and natural Birch items and more manageable for Sap&Btr items. Prices have a general downward bias, though only the 4/4 Fas listings and ranges warrant reductions.

NORTHERN SOFT GREY ELM

HARD MAPLE

Sawmills in the Upper Midwest are emphasizing production of this species over most others, which is a normal practice at this time of year. The intent is to cut as much Hard Maple as possible during winter, when stain risks are minimal. At the same time, markets are not as receptive to large volumes of green Hard Maple as during typical winters of the past. While lumber is moving, demand is far from robust. Prices are steady for many items but wobbly for others, as exemplified by reductions to the 5/4 through 8/4 Fas&Sel listings in both color classifications. Reports about kiln dried Hard Maple are mixed, although they lean more positive than negative. Most sales contacts characterize demand for all grades of #1&2 White 4/4 in favorable terms, though most acknowledge that 8-foot Fas business is slow, and some are struggling to move #1C at times. That said, transaction data show higher overall pricing for #1&2 White 4/4 #1C, prompting increases to the listings and low end range numbers. Conversely, the listings and ranges for #1&2 White 8/4 Fas fall back.

SOFT MAPLE

Respondents to HMR surveys currently identify kiln dried 4/4 Fas Soft Maple, more often than any other item, as one of their bestsellers. Thicker sizes of Fas are moving at a decent pace but have come off in price of late. Accordingly, the Sap&Btr 5/4, 6/4, and 8/4 Fas listings and noted ranges are reduced. Markets for #1C have lost momentum in the last 30 days, whether for Sap&Btr, Unselected, or brown stock. The slowest selling grade of kiln dried Soft Maple remains #2A, although certain sales operations have decent orders from established customers. Sawmills are having little difficulty finding outlets for green Soft Maple at prices consistent with the listings.

RED OAK

The overall tenor of comments about this species is more favorable now than during the past couple of months. For kiln dried Red Oak, steady demand from domestic and European markets, coupled with historically low production, is offsetting slower shipments to China and keeping inventories lean. For the second consecutive week, the 4/4 #2A&Btr, 5/4 Fas, and 5/4 #2A listings post gains, as do several associated range numbers. Concentration yards are consistently placing orders with sawmills for green Red Oak. Most are focused on procuring #1C&Btr. Meanwhile, most residential and truck trailer flooring factories are being cautious with #2A&3A purchasing due to lackluster finished goods sales. Most green prices are clustered around the respective listings, which all hold steady.

WHITE OAK

US exports of White Oak lumber edged up 1% in 2025 over 2024. More White Oak logs flowed to US sawmills last year, not only due to this modest growth in demand for lumber from export markets, but also because White Oak log exports declined 13% and consumption by stave plants contracted at least that much. These trends have continued in early 2026 and caused markets for green White Oak to become oversupplied. Prices continue to respond, with the listings for 4/4 through 6/4 Fas&Sel and 5/4 #2A&3A warranting reductions in this issue. This week brought little change in market conditions for kiln dried White Oak. Demand is not strong and is barely keeping pace with supply. Although prices are trending lower, all the listings and ranges remain intact for now.

PALLET LUMBER, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

The pallet industry is using less hardwood raw material than in the past. However, production of hardwood pallet lumber and cants is also well below past levels. Supply and demand for most items are at or near equilibrium. Prices have edged up of late, and the published numbers have followed. No further adjustments are necessary at this time.

The proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern continues to impact demand for crossties. Both railroads have reportedly reined in capital expenditures, and their treated tie suppliers have responded by similarly drawing down green tie purchases. Sawmills that have longstanding relationships with treaters are faring better than intermittent suppliers. Some mills facing quotas for 7x9 ties are receiving additional orders for 6x8 ties. The 7x9 crosstie range is in order following last week’s reduction to the top end.

Board road producers in the South are obtaining additional new orders, but that is not generally the case for their counterparts in the North. Sales are relatively slow, though prices are showing little to no change.

Oak Strip Flooring Comments

General

Comments from February 27, 2026.

The report on new residential construction for the month of December 2025 was a mixed bag. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of US single-family housing starts rose for the third consecutive month, climbing 4.1% in December to 981,000 units, the strongest pace in 10 months. Meanwhile, actual single-family starts—the raw count of units that broke ground and tends to be impacted by weather and the holidays—fell for the second straight month, tallying 69,400 in December.

The annualized pace of new single-family construction permitting edged down 1.7% in December, to 881,000 units, while actual permitting rose but was still the second slowest of the year, topping only November’s raw count. Both starts and permits are barometers for future single-family homebuilding activity, and both are somewhat middling. Even though the annualized pace of starts rose in December, it was down 9.0% from December 2024, while the pace of single-family permitting was 10.9% slower year-over-year in December.

Data for new housing completions more strongly indicate recent demand levels for interior fittings, including hardwood flooring. The annualized rate of single-family housing units completed in December was relatively unchanged from the prior two months, while actual completions were the strongest since December 2023. It is a safe bet that increased home completions played a role in the uptick in flooring shipments in Q4 over Q3 2025. Flooring manufacturers’ shipments also rose in January, according to finalized estimates by HMR.

As we enter March, there is optimism that the housing market will be stronger in 2026 than in 2025. The National Association of Home Builders predicts 1% growth in single-family starts, and the National Association of Realtors forecasts 14% growth in existing home sales in 2026. Both new and existing home sales drive demand for hardwood flooring, with remodeling of existing homes accounting for the largest share of business. Each should be supported by mortgage rates hovering around 6% for the year, according to myriad rate forecasts.

The high side ranges for several Red Oak and White Oak flooring items are raised this week, mainly in the 3¼” width.

International Comments

GENERAL

Please see our graphs.