Southern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from October 24, 2025

The metaphor of commercial planes circling an airport waiting to land is a good one to use when talking about the hardwood market in the South.

For the time being, market conditions are in a holding pattern with only minor increases and decreases in both supply and demand yielding movement in price. The industry continues to wait for a resolution to international trade deals with China and the EU, while it also remains patient for meaningful improvements to the American housing market.

Comments from market participants that HMR spoke to this week will not come as a surprise. “It’s not great, but it’s not terrible,” one seller from a major Southern sawmill said. He pointed to improved business for Red Oak and Ash and noted a positive trend for Fas&1f Poplar.

One contact said Chinese customers are skittish amid uncertainty due to President Trump’s threat of steep tariffs on Chinese goods in response to China restricting rare earth mineral exports.

Another Southern salesperson stated China has the potential to determine how the ‘holding pattern’ ends for the industry. He was on board with what the Trump Administration was trying to do protecting American industry through renegotiated trade deals but was disappointed that the hardwood sector was an “unintended” victim of it.

“This started and sustained with China being out of the market - this is my personal opinion,” he said. “Typically, in a bad market, you know what the problem is, you deal with it, and you find light at the end of the tunnel. This year, it has just dragged on and it feels like it is getting harder.”

ASH

Lowland logging in the South has pushed along without significant weather interruptions over the last week, meaning availability of green Ash has stayed steady. Production of kiln dried Ash is slightly down, with mostly 4/4 being sawn. A combination of lower supplies and a bump in international and domestic demand have pushed prices up for kiln dried 8/4 #2A&Btr, lifting the listings and ranges.

SOFT MAPLE

#2A&3A OAK

With the colder months starting to come into view, lower grade Oak inventories are a concern for end users. Reported prices for green 4/4 #2A&3A White Oak raise the listings, but lower grade Red Oak pricing remains unchanged this week.

RED OAK

With a lack of major trade deals on the horizon, the international market for kiln dried Red Oak has not strengthened over the last week. Demand for truck trailer flooring has trended downward recently, resulting in less 5/4 production. Shortages of green 5/4 Fas&1f raise the listings. The only changes for kiln dried Red Oak are slight increases to the upper end ranges for 5/4 #1C.

WHITE OAK

Like Red Oak, international demand for White Oak remains in a holding pattern. With supplies and domestic demand steady, prices for kiln dried White Oak stay unchanged this week. The green 4/4 #2A&3A listings are raised.

POPLAR

Supply and demand of green Poplar are evenly matched, resulting in no movement in price this week. There has been some interesting movement on the kiln dried side of the equation, with less demand for kiln dried 5/4 Fas, leading to slight decreases to the lower ends of the ranges. A decline in supplies of kiln dried 6/4 #1C is providing upward price movement. The kiln dried 6/4 #1C listings and ranges advance.

Appalachian Comments

GENERAL

Comments from October 24, 2025.

Hardwood lumber production in the Appalachian region climbed 11% in September over August. Total Eastern US hardwood lumber production was at an annualized rate of 4.019 billion board feet in September, up 6% from August. The Appalachian lumber price matrices on pages 6 through 11 are varied, showing a mix of increases, declines, and no changes. That said, declines are considerably more prevalent for kiln dried items than green. While not the only factor, kiln dried decreases coincide with greater uncertainty about prospects for a trade deal between the US and China. New tariff threats have some exporters cancelling Chinese orders and bookings. One contact said, “This needs to settle down so we can decide what to do.” Another said his Chinese customers don’t want him to ship given the most recent tariff scare, despite having already paid for orders. Demand for White Oak remains length specific, as it has been for months, and contacts say orders for Ash and Red Oak are increasingly length specific, favoring 9-foot and longer over 7 and 8-foot stock. Upper grade Poplar and Soft Maple still move out, but demand has moderated over the last month. Despite broad market uncertainties, threads of optimism remain. “There are some orders out there,” a yard sales manager said, adding, “we are hopeful about opportunities in domestic markets.”

ASH

Some drying operations are sourcing less green Ash or are reaching further afield to procure it due to resource scarcity caused by the Emerald Ash Borer. Such purchasing is increasing freight costs and pressuring profits. Domestic demand for this species is fair. Meanwhile, exports to China were already lagging the year-ago pace by 19% through July, and a fresh round of US-China trade deal uncertainty is further hampering Chinese interest. However, total Ash output is limited. Reported green and kiln dried prices are in line with prior weeks, resulting in no changes to any Ash figures.

HARD MAPLE

Sawmills and yards are offering customers more kiln dried Hard Maple than they need amid currently softening market conditions. Prior downward price pressure has become actual downward price movement that lowers the listings and noted range figures for kiln dried 6/4 Fas, 4/4 #1C, and 5/4 #2A in both color designations. Prices for several green Hard Maple items have a downward bias, but the listings do not warrant any changes at this point.

RED OAK

Many sawmills are back to avoiding Red Oak production, to the extent possible. This results from heightened tariff threats and domestic markets that, while ok, do not seem capable of absorbing more volume in the near term. Transaction data drop the high end ranges for 4/4 Fas and low end ranges for 6/4 Fas, 8/4 Fas, and 6/4 #1C. Information also lowers the 8/4 #1C figures. Meanwhile, the top ends of 4/4 #2A bump up. Green markets are more active than kiln dried, with flooring manufacturers absorbing developing #2A&3A along with substantial volumes of #1C Red Oak. Reported common grade prices show increases, and the listings for 5/4 through 8/4 #1C advance alongside gains for 4/4 through 8/4 #2A&3A and 4/4 #2A Alone.

WHITE OAK

Sales operations report decent demand for 9-foot and longer White Oak, while 8-foot and shorter stock moves slowly at considerably lower prices. Inventories of random length kiln dried 4/4 Fas are rising, and prices are falling. The listings and ranges for kiln dried 4/4 Fas are lowered. Unlike other kiln dried White Oak items, reported prices for 8/4 #2A are firm to higher, necessitating increases to the listings. Production of green 4/4 through 6/4 #2A&3A is not keeping up with the current pace of orders, and the listings notch gains. Prices gathered this week keep the green #1C&Btr listings in check.

POPLAR

Reported prices for green #1C and #2A are lower in observed business, as reflected in reductions to the listings for 4/4 through 6/4 #1C and 4/4 through 5/4 #2A. Most kiln dried #1C&Btr output moves steadily, but competition for available #2A orders has increased, with exports to China impacted by the trade fight, and shipments to Vietnam lower in each month of this year through July than in the same months of 2024. Information necessitates reductions to the listings and high end ranges for 4/4 #2A, all the 5/4 #2A figures, and the low end ranges for 8/4 #1C.

WALNUT

Pricing movement is more evident for kiln dried than green Walnut this week, opposite the trend over the last few months. However, that activity is decidedly negative for some thicker stock items. Walnut logs have been shipping at record levels to Vietnam, where lumber production is focused on thicker-stock items, according to contacts. Price pressures are evident, driving reductions to the listings and ranges for 5/4 Fas and 8/4 #1C&Btr. The ranges for 8/4 #2A also fall back. Conversely, increases are made to the listings and noted range figures for 4/4 #1C and 4/4 #2A. Production of several green Walnut lumber items continues to lag demand, keeping pricing in a firm to upward trajectory. The listings for 5/4 Fas&1f and 5/4 through 8/4 #2A bump up in this issue.

Northern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from October 24, 2025.

Eastern US hardwood sawmill production advanced 6.0% in September over August to an annualized rate of 4.019 billion board feet (BBF). Since both months had 21 working days, the daily production rate was unchanged. Compared to September 2024, total production this September was off 18.8%. The annualized rate of production during the first nine months of 2025 was 4.112 BBF, down 16.7% from the 2024 total, which was the lowest in at least 65 years. Focusing on the North, production edged up 1.5% in September over August.

ASH

Northern sawmill and concentration yard contacts have varied perspectives on the different grades, thicknesses, color specifications, and length selections of this species. On the one hand, Fas Ash that meets the Sap&Btr color specification is moving at a decent clip in 10-foot and longer lengths. Also, the common grades are drawing consistent interest from Chinese buyers, including black Ash. On the other hand, demand is slow for 8-foot Fas Ash. Some contacts that produce 6/4 and 8/4 report “fairly good” activity, but others are not as upbeat. Prices in observed business hold all the published figures in place except for the green 5/4 #2A&Btr listings, which decline this week.

ASPEN

Amid otherwise unfavorable reports about this species, one sales contact in the Upper Midwest commented, “Aspen moves as fast as we can dry it,” which he attributed to a lack of supply. However, the contact went on to explain that producing Aspen is a losing proposition. Indeed, many area logging operations, mills, and yards are dodging Aspen harvesting, production, and processing for that very reason. Reported prices for green #1C&Btr and kiln dried #2A&Btr are well represented by the existing listings and ranges. Prices for green #2A and #2B are soft but do not warrant any changes to the listings.

BIRCH

Production of this species has contracted sharply in the Upper Midwest during the last couple of years. Birch remains a staple species for sawmills in New England and Eastern Canada, even though production is also off in those areas. Regardless of subregion, the trend toward much lower output is in response to weaker demand. Secondary manufacturers in Canada, but especially in the US, are buying and consuming much smaller quantities of Birch than in the past. Following repeated decreases in recent weeks, green prices have stabilized, at least for now. All the listings stand pat. Likewise, information gathered on kiln dried transactions keeps the 4/4 #2A&Btr listings and ranges intact.

HARD MAPLE

“A lot of large Hard Maple tracts were cut during the last one to two months,” the sales manager for one Upper Midwest company told HMR last week in explaining growth in kiln dried Fas inventories. Another area contact said, “Uppers are a struggle to move, and I can’t get my price.” The Fas supply buildup is most acute for 8-foot 4/4 stock and has unsettled green and kiln dried pricing. The green 4/4 Fas&Sel and kiln dried 4/4 Fas figures register sizeable reductions in both color classifications. Notably, these and many other Northern sales operations have little #1C available for sale, and most report a stable pricing environment for all the common grades. Indeed, no changes are warranted to any of the green or kiln dried #1C, #2A, or #3A listings or ranges in this issue.

SOFT MAPLE

Green sawmill operators are not cutting a lot of this species due to a lack of logs, though most indicate it sells well when they do produce it. That said, demand is noticeably better for #1C&Btr than for #2A and #2B. Information obtained this week reduces the Sap&Btr 4/4 #1C and 4/4 #2A listings and holds all the other green figures in place. During the last several weeks, kiln dried Fas Soft Maple lost a bit of market momentum, whereas #1C gained momentum. While #1C is now the bestselling grade, Fas is performing well. Comments about #2A business are mixed but not as negative as 30 to 45 days ago. The published kiln dried Sap&Btr and Unselected #2A&Btr figures accurately reflect reported prices.

RED OAK

Not long ago, Northern companies had plenty of kiln dried #1C&Btr Red Oak orders on the books from Chinese customers. That business has slowed noticeably, however, due to the potential for higher tariffs after November 10, the downturn in Chinese markets regardless of trade issues, and the reduced preference for Northern stock by Chinese end users. Sales operations have since been able to divert more Red Oak to domestic and other international markets, though they have been more successful doing that with Fas than #1C. Prices observed for most kiln dried items are consistent with the respective listings and ranges. Since truck trailer flooring plants are controlling lumber purchases and residential flooring factories are not plentiful in the Upper Midwest, area sawmills do not have a multitude of outlets for green #2A&3A Red Oak right now. Likewise, reduced purchasing by flooring plants is causing mills to send more #1C to concentration yards. Even so, prices for the common grades and all other green items are holding steady due to historically low production.

WHITE OAK

This species continues to appear on bestseller lists for many Northern sales contacts. However, it appears on some worst seller lists as well. In the former case, contacts usually specify 10-foot and longer Fas or riftsawn material as good movers. Those reporting poor business almost always refer to 8-foot Fas. Demand for #1C White Oak has cooled off from the Far East but is holding up well domestically. Truck trailer flooring manufacturers are restricting #2A&3A purchases, but residential flooring plants and other markets are absorbing the limited quantities produced in this region. Reported prices for kiln dried flatsawn 4/4 Fas are in a very wide range. However, the listings and ranges are representative of most random length activity. Prices for some common grade items are soft, but no changes are warranted to any of the green or kiln dried White Oak figures.

International Comments

GENERAL

Please see our graphs.