Southern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from June 6, 2025

Logging contractors and sawmill operators state that storms, heavy rains, and intermittent rain events are impeding efforts to increase timber harvesting or build log decks. A number of mills are completely out of logs, and others have decreased scheduled hours to preserve the limited volume of logs available for processing. Production surveys are being sent. (If you would like to provide your production information, email david.caldwell@fastmarkets.com.) Though no official numbers for May are yet available, it is clear that green lumber supplies are down. Buyers are not panicked, though they do need to add to in process inventories.

ASH

Demand for kiln dried Ash has fluctuated significantly through the ups and downs of tariff escalations between the US and China. Domestic and other international customers cannot absorb total kiln dried Ash production. Reported prices have declined, and further reductions are required to the 4/4 #2A listings and bottom sides of the ranges. Green Ash production is low, and mills are shipping total output. The green #2A&Btr listings are reflective of activity.

BEECH

COTTONWOOD

Wet weather conditions continue to keep logging contractors from accessing Cottonwood timber. Since most mills that regularly process this species have exhausted on hand log supplies, production is extremely low. At the same time, exporters were able to ship existing Cottonwood orders to China, decreasing kiln dried inventories. Buyers are actively pursuing additional green stock. Reported prices rose this week, lifting the green 4/4 and 5/4 #1C&Btr listings. Price gains for kiln dried #1C&Btr are within the ranges.

PECAN & HICKORY

MIXED SOFT HARDWOODS

SAP GUM

SOFT MAPLE

#2A&3A OAK

Through April of this year, solid wood flooring shipments increased each month but are down 1.5% from the first four months of 2024. However, buyers for both the residential and truck trailer flooring sectors are purchasing steady volumes of low grade Oak. In fact, concerns over limited log decks and low mill output have pushed #2A&3A Oak price up, though previous increases have the Red and White Oak listings in order for now.

RED OAK

Many exporters have taken advantage of the short window to fill existing orders to Chinese customers. Inventories have declined as a result, and low production is not filling the pipeline. Reported prices for kiln dried material have vacillated from trending down to now trending back up. This week’s information raises the 4/4 and 5/4 Fas listings, but prices have dropped from the high side, requiring decreases to the top sides of the 4/4 Fas ranges. The lack of green production entering the market is concerning to end users, and buyers are pursuing developing #3A&Btr supplies. Reported prices hold the green listings in place.

WHITE OAK

White Oak business is little changed this week, with price pressures still prevalent for 4/4 Fas. The kiln dried 4/4 Fas listings are reduced. No changes are required to the kiln dried common grade figures or to the green #3A&Btr listings.

POPLAR

There is some indication that Poplar production increased as a percentage of total output when the trade war between the US and China escalated. However, total mill output is controlled, and supplies of green Poplar are not overwhelming the marketplace. Reported prices are steady. Kiln dried business is very grade specific. The upper grades are in high demand, keeping prices firm. Markets for #1C and #2A are decent but more competitive than for Fas.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Upholstered furniture sales are holding steady, which should mean steady usage of hardwood framestock. However, the hardwood industry has lost market share to sheet stock over time. Even so, well air dried framestock inventories are not excessive, and reported prices for both Oak and Mixed Species framestock are stable.

Many area mills are not operating at full capacity because of low log decks. Cant supplies are marginally adequate to meet the market’s needs. Reported prices are firm and hold the listing and range intact.

Tie treaters acknowledge that they have enough ties in process. However, most are consistently ordering from sawmills due to concerns that mill production will not seasonally increase to meet longer term requirements. Therefore, mills have enough orders to absorb developing supplies. Reported prices have edged down in specific instances, though the majority of 7x9 crosstie pricing is within the ranges.

Wet weather conditions are keeping total production down, including board road. However, supplies are satisfying demand. No changes are warranted to the board road listing or range.

Appalachian Comments

GENERAL

Comments from June 6, 2025

Sawmills with ample log supplies and yards with in process lumber inventories are capitalizing on the pause in the US/China trade battle, while they are simultaneously trying to avoid having containers getting caught on the water if tariff rates reescalate after the 90-day window closes. Other mills that would like to increase production have insufficient log decks or not enough time to ship to China without taking on significantly higher risks. The remainder are in wait and see mode with China, however, choosing to minimize risks while longer term tariff rate uncertainty remains. The US single family housing market is a key driver of domestic demand for hardwood lumber but lacks energy. The pace of US single family homebuilding tends to rise in spring, but the 927,000 unit annualized pace in April was the slowest since last July. Grade lumber sales are fair to lower to cabinet and wood furniture manufacturers, but shipments are decent to moulding, millwork, and wood component manufacturers. Demand for industrial lumber is better from pallet and railroad tie markets than from upholstered furniture plants.

ASH

Ash log decks are low across the Appalachian hardwood growing region, hampered by rain related poor logging conditions in many areas. Lumber production is limited but is adequately meeting market needs. More Ash has flowed to China in recent weeks amid the pause in elevated tariff rates. Reported prices are stable, continuing the trend over recent weeks and warranting no changes to the green or kiln dried figures.

BASSWOOD

Production of this species is low but so is demand, with some producers reporting Basswood as their slowest selling species. Reported prices are consistent with last week, allowing the green and kiln dried listings and ranges to stand.

BEECH

BIRCH

CHERRY

The early stages of the temporary lowering of tariff rates in the US/China trade spat did stimulate shipments temporarily but is not resulting in the uptick in demand for which producers had been hoping. Production curtailments are continuing, and price declines are less prevalent this week than in the prior two weeks. Information holds all green listings intact in both subregions but drops the kiln dried 6/4 Fas listings in the North Central subregion.

HICKORY

Sawmill operators report somewhat stronger demand for green Hickory. Warm weather has arrived in much of the region, and mills are sawing Hickory logs promptly to prevent stain damage. Supply and demand are at or near equilibrium, and prices for most green items are holding close to the respective listings. Kiln dried sales are stronger for #1C&Btr Hickory than for #2A. Information necessitates increases to the 4/4 Fas listings and low end range numbers but reductions to the #2A listings.

HARD MAPLE

Production of green Hard Maple remains elevated, as some sawmills still favor sawing whitewood during the temporary pause in the US/China tariff battle. The additional green production is moving with relative ease. However, only the green 4/4 #1C and #2A listings increase in both color designation, and the listing for #1&2 White 5/4 #1C also edges higher. In kiln dried, supplies of #1&2 White 4/4 Fas are pushing ahead of good demand, and the listings lose ground. Despite comments that kiln dried #1&2 White 8/4 Hard Maple sales are quiet, the 8/4 #1C listings and low end range figures advance.

SOFT MAPLE

Producers in Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York report good business for Soft Maple, at stable prices for most items. Overall demand is stronger for the Sap&Btr color designation than for Unselected. In green, only the Sap&Btr 4/4 Fas&1f listings increase, leaving all other listings for both color classifications unchanged for a second consecutive week. Markets for kiln dried Sap&Btr 4/4 Fas have cooled slightly from strong levels in early spring, and the listings and high ends of the ranges retreat. However, information drives increases for the Sap&Btr 4/4 #2A listings and ranges and also boosts the listings for Unselected 4/4 #2A.

#2&3A OAK

Contacts say #2A&3A Red Oak is moving steadily to residential flooring plants, but sales to truck trailer flooring manufacturers have slowed a bit after buyers beefed up receipts in April and most of May. Supplies of #2A&3A Red Oak are neither excessive nor as scarce as they were earlier this year. The listings for #2A&3A Red Oak hold in all thicknesses, and the listing for 4/4 #2A Alone Red Oak is unchanged. Reported prices for #2A&3A White Oak are mostly grouped around the listings.

RED OAK

Comments about Red Oak are generally more positive than a month ago. Demand temporarily picked up from China during the early stages of the 90-day pause in elevated tariffs. Kiln dried inventories have, therefore, thinned out in many warehouses. Yards are taking in more green Red Oak though being cautious about volumes and selective about vendors. Supplies of most green items are in line with demand. However, transactions point out some upward price movement for green 4/4 #1C, advancing the listing. Likewise, supplies of most kiln dried Red Oak items are in line with demand, but information warrants increases to the high end ranges for 4/4 Fas, the low and high ends of the 4/4 #1C ranges, the listings for 6/4 #1C, and the listings and ranges for 8/4 #1C. Residential flooring plants are purchasing steady volumes of #2A&3A at stable to somewhat higher prices.

WHITE OAK

Producers list White Oak among their bestselling species, but demand lags supply for a few items. Some yards and wood products manufacturers are well stocked with Fas&1f, and mills are reporting Fas&1f price reductions for random and eight foot lengths, but strong prices for 12 foot and longer. In green, the only listings reduced are for #1C in all thicknesses. Lower reported prices move down the kiln dried 4/4 Fas White Oak listings and ranges, the 4/4 #1C listings and high end ranges, and the 5/4 and 6/4 #1C listings.

POPLAR

Sawmill order files for Poplar are in good shape, and producers say the species moves steadily to moulding, millwork, and wood component manufacturers. However, sales of #1C and #2A are not as strong as Fas&1f. Transaction documentation reported for green Poplar warrants reductions to the listings for 6/4 Fas&1f and 4/4 through 6/4 #1C. Likewise, the listings and ranges for kiln dried 4/4 #1C also decline.

WALNUT

Yards are more aggressively purchasing green Walnut during the pause in US/China trade tensions. Supplies are shifting from excessive relative to the low demand levels during the trade spat, to hardly sufficient during this demand uptick. A yard contact states Walnut is selling faster than it is coming in, requiring increases to his green purchase prices. Newly reported prices raise the 4/4 through 8/4 Fas&1f listings. Information also elevates the kiln dried 4/4 Fas listings, the 4/4 #1C listings and high side ranges, and the high ends of the 4/4 #2A ranges.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Oak and Mixed hardwood framestock remains out of favor with domestic furniture manufacturers, relative to usage of substitute products plywood and MDF. Low inventories align with very tepid demand, and all price ranges hold.

The supply of cants is meeting current market needs. Most vendors are not having trouble moving their developing cants at prices well represented by the listing and range.

Some suppliers state that the market for railroad ties is stable and all their production moves, while other vendors remain on monthly quotas. Some quotas are limiting shipments, but others do encapsulate typical production levels. Transactions point to stable pricing, with the two subregional ranges unchanged.

Comments about board road over the last three weeks are equally split among slow, fair, and good. No changes are required to the listing or range.

Northern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from June 6, 2025

Conversations with contacts and the weekly survey data show a mixed bag of information on log decks, green and kiln dried lumber sales, and demand for hardwood finished goods. More sawmill operators than not state that log receipts have improved since spring breakup. However, some mill managers are controlling log receipts due to either weak demand for certain items or the inability to process stain susceptible species before log degradation sets in. As far as sales are concerned, most exporters have shipped existing orders to Chinese buyers but are unwilling to risk getting stuck with outbound lumber on the water and not reaching Chinese ports before the expiration of the tariff pause. Suppliers agree that domestic kiln dried lumber markets are decent but are not as strong now as earlier this year. Uncertainty about future business is impacting green lumber sales. Additionally, markets are highly variable based on species, grade, and thickness. In general, business is better for Fas&Sel and #1C&Btr than for the lower grades, and premium color and length material is more desirable than off color and shorter lumber. Lastly, across all regions, moulding and millwork manufacturers have better business than any other major market sector, while the upholstered furniture industry is performing worst for hardwood suppliers. Industrial markets are holding up well, more because of lack of supply than a boost in demand.

ASH

The increase in Ash exports to China the past few weeks has decreased inventories and firmed pricing for the kiln dried upper grades. Information lifts the 4/4 Fas listings. No changes are warranted to kiln dried 4/4 #1C or #2A. Green production is not very high, and markets are absorbing developing supplies. The green #2A&Btr listings hold steady.

ASPEN

Contacts report slightly better demand for kiln dried Aspen. However, noted price gains are more a result of limited supplies than higher buyer interest. Regardless of the reason, transactions do show elevated pricing for kiln dried 4/4 #1C&Btr, lifting the listings and ranges. With markets for kiln dried stock somewhat busier, demand for green 4/4 #1C&Btr has improved. At the same time, production is low, driving price gains. The green 4/4 #1C&Btr listings are raised.

BASSWOOD

Most Northern producers say that logs are flowing better from the woods to area mills. However, sawmill operators have been dodging Basswood logs for an extended period of time, and some still are. Green production is not meeting the market’s needs for #1C&Btr. The 4/4 through 9/4 #1C&Btr listings advance. Demand for #2A and #2B is weak, as are prices, though no changes are warranted to the listings. Because green Basswood output has been low and demand is somewhat better, kiln dried inventories are thin. Transactions show sufficiently higher prices to raise the kiln dried 4/4 #1C&Btr listings and ranges. Markets are not as good for the lower grades or for thicker stocks as they are for 4/4. The kiln dried 5/4 through 9/4 figures stand pat.

BEECH

BIRCH

Demand for kiln dried upper grade Birch, especially premium color material, is better than for other grades, though 4/4 #1C markets are improving. Too, the difference between Birch and Soft Maple pricing is positively impacting Fas Birch business. Reported prices for kiln dried Fas Birch are trending up, but past increases have the listings and ranges in order. Likewise, no changes are required to the kiln dried #1C or #2A figures. Area mills are processing consistent quantities of green stock, and supplies are adequate to satisfy buyers’ requirements. The #3A&Btr listings are in order.

NORTHERN SOFT GREY ELM

HARD MAPLE

As temperatures rise, Hard Maple production typically runs in shorter batches to avoid degrade from stain damage. In some cases, that is occurring now. Green prices are firm, especially for premium color and longer lengths. Brown Hard Maple remains a problem for producers to sell. Reported prices are in line with last week and hold the #1&2 White #2A&Btr and Unselected #3A&Btr listings in check. Sales contacts supplied mixed report on demand for kiln dried stock. Some state that order files are flush, while others indicate interest in kiln dried Hard Maple is slightly lower. But total demand is keeping inventories thin for #1C&Btr. The upper grade figures are in order, but the #1&2 White 4/4 and 5/4 #1C listings and noted ranges are raised. Low grade business is somewhat better, though suppliers have adequate availability. No changes are warranted to the 4/4 #2A figures.

SOFT MAPLE

This species remains on most companies’ bestselling list, but this week’s conversations tilted more negative about Soft Maple than in past weeks. However, upper grade business is holding up well, with reported prices for green Fas&Sel firm but unchanged. The only adjustments to kiln dried Fas are increases to the low sides of the Sap&Btr 6/4 Fas ranges. #1C markets are steady, and the published figures are in order. Demand for #2A and off color Soft Maple is weak.

RED OAK

For exporters that ship to China, the last few weeks have been hectic in trying to get containers lined up and transported to ports. But many have been able to fill existing orders, drawing down inventories. Reported prices shifted from a downward bias to rising again. Transactions show firm pricing for the upper grades. Common grade pricing is advancing, with the 4/4 and 5/4 #1C listings and noted ranges raised. Additionally, the 4/4 #2A figures are increased. Green Red Oak production is seasonally increasing, providing price stability for #1C&Btr, but the 4/4 #2A, #3A, and #2A Alone listings edge up on higher reported prices.

WHITE OAK

Kiln dried White Oak is moving fairly well in domestic and international markets, but prices continue to slide. The kiln dried 4/4 #1C&Btr listings and most ranges are reduced. Falling kiln dried prices are impacting activity for green stocks. No changes are made to the common grade figures, but the 4/4 through 6/4 Fas&Sel listings decline.

PALLET LUMBER, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Spring breakup reduced pallet cant and lumber availability, and many wooden pallet and container manufacturers saw raw material inventories decline. Most end users are working to bolster on hand supplies. However, production remains controlled, and cant and lumber availability is falling short of requirements. Reported prices show higher numbers for 4/4 random and selected width pallet lumber, raising the listings and ranges. Additionally, both ends of the cant range are increased.

Because most treaters have ample supplies of in process ties, they are controlling receipts. However, total production is not especially high. Mills that regularly process railroad ties, generally, have orders for developing material. Reported prices are weaker in certain transactions, but the 7x9 crosstie range accurately reflects pricing data.

Contacts indicate there is better demand for board road, and regular producers are meeting the market’s needs. The board road listing and range are representative of reported prices.

Oak Strip Flooring Comments

General

Comments from June 6, 2025

The magnitude of seasonal demand improvements for Oak strip flooring in spring can be quite large, resulting in sales momentum carrying through into summer and, at times, beyond. While business for Oak strip flooring did improve this spring, a stronger adjective is not required to define overall market conditions.

Initially, the US/China trade battle presented competitive advantages for domestic flooring manufacturers: Elevated tariff rates were prohibitive to Chinese trade. However, the window that opened for domestic flooring manufacturers to fill potential import supply voids shut quickly during the 90-day tariff pause. Chinese manufacturers do not ship as much hardwood flooring to the US as they used to, but they are using the tariff pause to ship as much floor covering products to the US as possible.

US receipts of hardwood flooring from global suppliers are an indicator of the strength of the US flooring market. When receipts are up and US manufacturer domestic sales are also rising, it indicates a strong market and strong competition for market share. Conversely, the opposite is true when hardwood flooring imports are down at the same time US manufacturer domestic sales are down or sluggish. Through March of this year, US imports of hardwood flooring were up 5% over Q1 2024, which was the lowest volume for any non COVID impacted Q1 since 2017. The combination of moderately higher hardwood flooring imports and seasonally stronger but not vigorous domestic manufacturers’ sales indicates a decent market, at best.

Prices for 2¼” White Oak strip flooring – averaged across both regions and all grades – dipped to a three year low in late March 2024 after falling sharply from the COVID influenced peak in February 2022. The averaged price did bounce back a bit, rising by $0.15 from April into mid August 2024, and then held somewhat steady until turning slightly higher again in late April 2025. Gains in Sel&Btr accounted for most of the White Oak averaged price growth since last spring. Red Oak flooring prices, also averaged across regions and grades, were at a four year low last spring; the subsequent rebound last summer lagged White Oak increases. By comparison, price gains for No.1 Com and No.2 Com accounted for most of Red Oak’s averaged price growth since last spring.

International Comments

GENERAL

Please see our graphs.