Southern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from 5/7/2021

Markets for hardwood finished goods and lumber remain strong. Domestically, new home construction and record setting spending on single family housing and remodeling are driving business. Outside of the US, many countries are reopening after extended lockdowns, buoying demand for US produced lumber all the more. At the same time, sawmill operators are boosting production to the extent personnel will allow. Labor issues continue to restrain mill owners from substantially increasing output through improved workflow efficiencies or by expanding capacity utilization. However, sawmill production is increasing and is easing price pressures on green lumber in a number of species, grades and thicknesses.

ASH

Ash production was extremely low in winter and early spring. More is being produced now, and the marketplace is welcoming additional supplies. Reported prices are firm and are well represented by the respective green #2A&Btr listings. Domestic and international markets for kiln dried Ash are solid. Most suppliers indicate inventories are low but better than just a few weeks ago. Transactions point out some moderate upward price movement, though changes are confined within the #2A&Btr ranges.

COTTONWOOD

Key markets for Cottonwood are all performing well. Domestic activity is driven by the shutter/blind and casket industries. For very different reasons, both are experiencing strong demand for their respective products. Additionally, international buyers have reengaged US Cottonwood suppliers. Mills and resellers are having no difficulty shipping total production. Reported prices for green #2B&Btr and kiln dried #1C&Btr are firm.

PECAN & HICKORY

Most solid wood flooring manufacturers and cabinet makers are working to build raw material inventories, including Hickory/Pecan. These and other markets are readily absorbing developing supplies. Reported prices for green #2B&Btr are firm, though last week’s changes have the listings in order.

SOFT MAPLE

Sawmill contacts acknowledge they have put more emphasis on processing White Oak, Red Oak, Poplar, and Ash ahead of such species as Soft Maple. However, mills are sawing on hand Soft Maple logs in short rotations to avoid stain damage. Developing green lumber supplies are needed, and buyers are purchasing material as it becomes available. The WHND #2B&Btr and WHAD #2A&Btr listings are representative of reported prices.

#2A&3A OAK

Truck trailer and residential solid wood flooring manufacturers are experiencing strong demand for finished goods. However, most have been unable to ramp up production substantially to meet customers’ needs because of lumber and labor shortages. Nonetheless, buyers have been working diligently to boost raw material receipts and are hopeful sawmill output will gain traction in the coming weeks. Transactions point out firm pricing for green #2A&3A Red and White Oak, though past increases have the listings in order for now.

RED OAK

Kiln dried #2A&Btr Red Oak sales to Mexico, China, and in the US remain good. However, availability is edging up, and buyers are expressing concerns about raw material prices. Transactions point out firm prices for kiln dried Red Oak, but any upward movement is confined to the ranges. Because of a less frenzied kiln dried marketplace, concentration yards are closely monitoring purchased green Red Oak costs. In this week’s pricing data, green #3A&Btr prices were consistent with last week, allowing the listings to stand.

WHITE OAK

It is a highly competitive marketplace for White Oak saw logs. Some sawmill operators are unwilling to pay current prices, limiting production to a degree. But for every buyer unwilling to pay the price, multiple buyers are anxiously awaiting any additional White Oak logs they can get – some for domestic use and some for export. Meanwhile, demand for White Oak lumber and ties is strong. Previous increases have the common grade figures in order for the time being, but the 5/4 and 6/4 Fas&1f listings climb $25 on higher reported prices. Kiln dried inventories remain low relative to demand, and prices are still pressured. Information lifts the 4/4 Fas, 5/4 Fas, and 5/4 #1C figures, as well as the low sides of the 4/4 #1C ranges.

POPLAR

Area mills prefer to build sizeable Poplar log decks before processing this species. Contacts have reported several large production runs the past few weeks. Buyers are readily accepting developing green lumber supplies. However, the slight boost in availability has eased price pressures to a degree. The green #2B&Btr listings are reflective of activity for now. Kiln dried inventories are thin for a number of items but especially Fas. Transactions point out sufficiently higher numbers to raise the kiln dried 4/4, 6/4, and 8/4 Fas listings and ranges.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Contacts indicate there is more green framestock entering the marketplace, as sawmill operators saw deeper into logs to get all of the grade lumber possible. However, it will take time for the lumber to dry to a useable state. For now, well air dried framestock inventories are low. Reported prices are firm but well represented by the Oak and Mixed Species ranges.

In cases, the inability to hire trucks has slowed the flow of goods into the US market and abroad. For some wooden pallet and container manufacturers, these circumstances are delaying shipments and even near term business. But, despite the delays, manufacturers are aware that more pallets are needed now and moving forward. Demand for pallet cants has not slowed. In fact, end users would like to have more. Reported prices are firm, though recent increases have the listing and range in order.

Demand for railroad ties remains strong. Treaters are purchasing steady volumes from regular vendors. Transactions point out firm to somewhat higher pricing, but changes are confined to the ranges, allowing the published figures to stand.

The rate of business for board road material is determined by the industry served. Those who have produced for the pipeline industry have seen a drop in demand, while those selling board road for road and electric grid construction projects are experiencing better success. Information shows steady volumes of board road shipping, and reported prices are static.

Appalachian Comments

GENERAL

Comments from 5/7/2021

US gross domestic product increased at an annualized rate of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. From all reports, economic expansion remains robust as we approach the middle of the second quarter. Perhaps most important, from a hardwood industry perspective, home construction and remodeling markets are highly energized. Wood flooring, cabinets, furniture, moulding, doors, blinds and shutter, and a variety of other products for the home are in high demand, as is upholstered furniture. Markets for wood pallets and containers are vibrant. Eastern US hardwood sawmill production is edging up, but most domestic end use markets are still undersupplied. Labor and transportation issues are also restraining what might otherwise be faster growth in lumber and finished goods output.

ASH

Log supplies have improved at area sawmills, and mills are promptly sawing whitewood logs to avoid stain. Therefore, somewhat larger quantities of green Ash are entering the marketplace. End users and concentration yards are grateful for the additional volume but would like to have more. Green prices continue to firm but are well represented by the respective listings, for now. Kiln dried Ash is moving well in the US and abroad. Demand is good from established Ash customers, and the species is also receiving more interest due to low supplies and relatively high prices for other open grained woods. Information lifts the 4/4 through 6/4 #2A&Btr listings and noted ranges in this issue.

BASSWOOD

The boom in US home construction and remodeling is lifting demand for a wide variety of wood products, including window blinds, shutters, moulding, and other items often made from Basswood. Domestic and foreign suppliers of these products to US markets are assertively purchasing Basswood. Green and kiln dried prices held steady for an extended period of time but have recently trended higher. This week, the green 4/4 and 5/4 #1C&Btr listings warrant increases of $20 for Fas&1f and $15 for #1C. All of the kiln dried listings and most of the ranges also advance.

CHERRY

Demand for this species has improved since the middle of last year. Exports to China comprise a significant share of total business. However, domestic end users are buying more Cherry, much of which is going into furniture and cabinets for home remodeling. Reported green prices show a more pronounced upward trend than in the last few weeks. The listings climb $50 for 4/4 through 8/4 Fas&1f in both producing areas, with the North Central 4/4 through 8/4 #1C listings up $25 and the equivalent Appalachian items gaining $15. Meanwhile, the kiln dried North Central 4/4 #1C and 4/4 #2A figures move higher, as do the Appalachian 4/4 #2A&Btr and 5/4 #2A listings and noted ranges.

HICKORY

HARD MAPLE

Market intensity for this species is quite high. Many sawmills are fielding multiple offers for each load of green Hard Maple, and drying operations report similarly robust kiln dried business. Demand is good from several markets, but the cabinet and wood component sectors are the most active. Mills are expediting green Hard Maple production and shipments to dodge potential stain issues in logs and lumber. Even so, markets are undersupplied, and prices continue to advance. The green #1&2 White and Unselected 4/4 Fas&1f listings are raised $25 and $50, respectively, while 5/4 through 8/4 Fas&1f hold steady. Also, all of the published #1C, #2A, and #3A listings climb $15 in both color classifications, except for Unselected 4/4 and 5/4 #3A, which rise $25. For kiln dried Hard Maple, the #1&2 White and Unselected 4/4 through 8/4 #1C&Btr listings and ranges warrant increases.

SOFT MAPLE

Reports about Soft Maple business are mostly favorable but vary depending on the market and item in question. The cabinet industry is far and away the busiest end use market for Soft Maple, followed by the wood furniture sector. While sawmill operators are having little to no difficulty moving developing green #2A&Btr production, Fas&1f is attracting a bit more attention than #1C and a lot more attention than #2A. Circumstances are much the same in kiln dried markets, with Fas outperforming the common grades. Reported prices lift the green 5/4 through 8/4 Fas&1f listings $50 in both color classifications but leave all the other published green and kiln dried numbers intact.

#2A&3A OAK

Wood residential and truck trailer flooring factories have large order files for finished goods. Both sectors have the manufacturing capacity to substantially boost production, but that has proven difficult due to lumber supply constraints and labor shortages. Flooring plants indicate #2A&3A Oak receipts have increased the last two weeks. However, most need a lot more lumber if they are to meet upcoming sales and production goals. Competition for #2A&3A Red and White Oak is quite intense, as reflected in higher transaction prices this week. Accordingly, the listings for 4/4 through 8/4 #2A&3A Red Oak, 4/4 #2A Alone Red Oak, and 4/4 through 6/4 #2A&3A White Oak are raised $15.

RED OAK

Market conditions for this species are favorable, overall, though demand for certain items has plateaued or even cooled off a bit. Drying operations have reduced 6/4 and 8/4 Fas&1f purchases out of concern for possible kiln dried price corrections in the future, though there is no evidence of kiln dried price erosion at this point. Kiln dried Fas Red Oak is moving well domestically and for export, but most prices have leveled off, at least temporarily. Among all the green and kiln dried upper grade items, only the kiln dried 5/4 Fas figures advance in this issue. Flooring plants are assertively purchasing green 4/4 #1C Red Oak along with all the #2A&3A they can find. Some are also buying kiln dried #1C. Meanwhile, 4/4 #1C exports are brisk, including additional shipments to Mexico. Prices in observed business raise the green 4/4 through 8/4 #1C Red Oak listings (+$15) and the high side of the kiln dried 5/4 #1C ranges. Without question, 4/4 and 5/4 #2A&3A are the strongest selling Red Oak items. Prices for all #2A&3A items continue to climb, necessitating $15 bumps for green 4/4 through 8/4 #2A&3A and 4/4 #2A Alone as well as increases to the kiln dried 4/4 through 8/4 #2A listings and noted ranges.

WHITE OAK

Sawmill operators report booming business for green 4/4 and 5/4 #3A&Btr White Oak. Flooring plants and concentration yards are showing great urgency with purchases. However, some yards have become more cautious in buying thicker stocks. White Oak log supplies have increased at mills, but not nearly enough to meet demand for lumber. This week brought a more stable pricing environment for green #1C&Btr White Oak, allowing the listings to stand. In contrast, the 4/4 through 6/4 #2A&3A listings add another $15. Prices for many kiln dried items continue to gain ground. The 4/4 #2A&Btr and 5/4 through 8/4 #1C&Btr listings and ranges advance.

POPLAR

Area contacts indicate that many sawmills have made large Poplar cuts the last few weeks. So far, green and kiln dried markets are readily absorbing the additional production with little or no impact to pricing. In fact, prices continue to rise on strong domestic and worldwide demand. The green #2A&Btr listings climb $15 for Fas&1f and $10 for #1C and #2A across all thicknesses. Likewise, all the kiln dried listings and most of the range numbers increase.

WALNUT

This species is in very high demand, particularly in the US and China. Kiln dried Walnut is scarce, and sellers are commanding higher prices on new orders. To better reflect pricing observed in the marketplace, all the published figures are raised, with some registering sizeable gains. Green Walnut availability is improving, although there is still a gap between supply and demand for most items. Reported prices range from steady to slightly higher, though much of the information is grouped around the respective listings.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Markets for framestock are performing very well. Upholstered furniture manufacturers are busy and in need of more raw materials for frames. While framestock production has increased, much of the added volume is still being air dried. Prices are advancing within the ranges but warrant no changes to the ranges themselves.

The combination of vibrant demand and moderately higher supply has led to significant price inflation for pallet cants the last six months. Again this week, contacts report heavy competition among pallet plants for available cants. Prices continue to respond. The cant listing is raised $15, and the range climbs $25.

Railroads are much busier now than a year ago, which has led to an improved outlook for tie installations. Treating facilities are working to sustain or increase tie purchases in order to keep up. That has become more challenging with advancing grade lumber prices, particularly prices for #2A&3A Oak. In response, treaters have bumped up prices. However, previous increases have both the crosstie ranges in order, for now.

Reports about board road business are mixed but generally better than at any time in the past 12 months. Usage in the oil industry is still constrained, but growth in other sections of the economy is fostering some additional demand. Reported prices are holding near the listing or within the range.

Northern Comments

GENERAL

Comments from 5/7/2021

A higher percentage of Northern hardwood production is consumed in the US and Canada than Southern or Appalachian production. Maples and whitewoods, in general, are not exported to the extent as Oak, Poplar, and Walnut, for example. The dependence on domestic and cross border trading has been advantageous to Northern producers during this unprecedented run up in new home construction and historically high private spending on single family homes and remodeling. The US is entering the 12th consecutive year of increased new home starts. The longest streak prior to the current one was five years. In January, private spending on residential construction reach $719 billion, by far the highest amount since US Census began tracking data. February’s numbers were nearly as high ($713B). The fact that the domestic marketplace favors whitewoods has also been a plus for Northern suppliers. But, Northern hardwoods are sold globally, as well, and international business has also picked up. Despite a good winter timber harvesting season in the North Country, followed by a short spring breakup, log decks and green lumber production have not increased at the same rate as demand for sawn products. Lumber shortages are currently commonplace, at a time of year when surpluses are expected to support demand into and throughout summer. Many sellers state that order files are deep. This combination has pushed prices for some species, grades, and thicknesses to all time highs. Hard Maple, Soft Maple, Walnut, and White Oak have performed particularly well, though markets for lower cost substitute species have ticked up alongside the more popular species.

ASH

Domestic and international markets for Ash are solid. At the same time, total sawmill production has not risen enough to satisfy buyers’ needs, including Ash. Kiln dried supplies are tight, and reported prices are responding. The 4/4 #2A&Btr figures are increased this week. Strong markets for kiln dried stocks are driving high interest in green lumber, but sawmill output of Ash is controlled. Information lifts the green 4/4 through 6/4 #2A&Btr listings $20 for Fas&Sel, $15 for #1C, and $10 for #2A.

ASPEN

As noted in the opening comments, strong demand and limited supplies of key species have expanded the market’s interest in second tier species, such as Aspen. This is on top of solid core business already in place for Aspen. Mills and resellers are shipping total production. Reported prices range from steady to firm, but the #2B&Btr listings are reflective of green lumber activity. Contacts indicate kiln dried Aspen inventories are not particularly high, and demand is good. Information shows some upward price movement, though changes are within the #2A&Btr ranges, allowing the published figures to stand.

BASSWOOD

Demand for Basswood is good nationwide but suppliers are having better success in the Upper Midwest than in the New England area. As with many traditionally lower cost species, Basswood business has improved due to extreme price inflation for other species and increased new home construction and remodeling activity. Reported prices for kiln dried #2A&Btr have advanced, but previous adjustments have the listings and ranges in order. Green lumber production is varied throughout the region. Some mills are cutting substantially more Basswood than others, but in total, supplies are only marginally sufficient to satisfy the market’s needs. Transactions point out firm pricing for #2B&Btr and hold the listings in check.

BEECH

BIRCH

Reports from a number of sales companies state they are oversold on unselected and sap Birch. Markets are not as good for off color material, though sellers are shipping total production. Kiln dried inventories are thin, and reported prices have trended sharply higher over time. But, information shows prices this week are grouped around the #2A&Btr listings or within the ranges. Similar circumstances are noted for green Birch. Mills and resellers are shipping developing output at prices centered on the #3A&Btr listings.

HARD MAPLE

There has been no letup in market energy for this species. The strong US housing market and low supplies continue to drive activity for this species. Contacts indicate demand is strong for most all grades and thicknesses, though some buyers indicate there is slightly too much green 8/4 entering the marketplace. The high cost, time required to dry 8/4, and concerns about future kiln dried prices have eased upward price pressures to a degree. But, information raises the #1&2 White 4/4 Fas&Sel listings $50. The 5/4 and 6/4 Fas&Sel figures are increased $25. The 4/4 through 6/4 #1C and 4/4 #2A listings advance $15. For Unselected Hard Maple, the 4/4 through 6/4 #1C&Btr figures bump up $25 for Fas&Sel and $15 for #1C. In addition, all published thicknesses of #2A and #3A climb $15. Kiln dried business is booming, especially for Fas. While previous changes have the #1C and #2A figures in order, the #1&2 White 4/4 through 8/4 and Unselected 4/4 and 5/4 Fas listings and most range numbers are raised.

SOFT MAPLE

Information shows there has been slightly more Soft Maple produced recently. The market is readily absorbing additional supplies, though reported prices are more stable this week. After repeated increases, the green Unselected #2B&Btr and Sap&Btr #2A&Btr figures hold steady in this issue. On the other hand, there is still upward price momentum for kiln dried upper grade Soft Maple. The Sap&Btr 4/4 through 8/4 and Unselected 4/4 Fas listings and ranges are raised.

RED OAK

As Red Oak prices near the record levels set in 2014, some buyers are concerned about getting caught with high priced inventory. Many concentration yards were burnt in the mid 2018 through the end of 2019 time period and do not want to experience a similar event in this cycle. Reported prices for green Fas&Sel and kiln dried Fas are firm but unchanged this week. The same is true for #1C. But, the solid wood flooring industry has not reached desired raw material inventory objectives, yet. Competition for low grade Oak is driving prices up. The 4/4 through 6/4 #2A&3A and 4/4 #2A Alone listings advance $10.

WHITE OAK

The marketplace cannot get enough White Oak. Despite record high prices, domestic and international customers are clamoring for more. The kiln dried 4/4 #2A&Btr listings and ranges are raised. Green production is not satisfying buyers’ needs either. All published thicknesses of green Fas&Sel and #2A&3A are increased $25 for Fas&Sel and $10 for #2A&3A. Past gains have the #1C figures in order for now.

PALLET LUMBER, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

The US economy bounced back quickly from the most devastating pandemic shutdowns. In fact, revised GDP projections show the US economy will likely expand somewhere between 5.5% to 6.5% in 2021 from 2020. Labor and trucking are holding back a faster rate of economic growth. Wooden pallet and container manufacturers need additional raw materials, and prices are responding. The cant listing is raised $15, and both ends of the range climb $10. Additionally, the 4/4 through 6/4 random and selected width lumber listings and ranges are increased $10 each.

Sawmill production has struggled to return to normal levels following a year and a half trade war with China and pandemic shutdowns last year. Now, some mills are processing more lumber and less ties because of the high value of low grade lumber. Tie buyers are more assertive with purchases, and prices are edging up. Both ends of the 7x9 crosstie range are raised $.50.

Despite somewhat better demand for board road, supplies are meeting short term needs. Reported prices are steady and hold the listing and range in check.

Oak Strip Flooring Comments

General

Comments from 5/7/2021

Look for the US economy and industrial sector to post gaudy year over year results in the next several months. Economic and manufacturing output are up, in general, and the outcomes are being compared to astounding lows that occurred during the depths of the coronavirus pandemic shutdowns. For example, US manufacturers’ year to date shipments of solid wood flooring increased 30% over the first four months of 2020. Last spring, shipments fell below 20 million square feet per month and trekked at late 1980s and early 1990s levels – a time when the solid wood flooring industry was emerging from collapse after falling from 1.2 billion (B) board feet (BF) in 1955 to 75 million BF in 1982 (Source: NOFMA).

Not to be overlooked is last year’s decline in Eastern US hardwood sawmill production that nosedived to a record monthly low in May. Further, Eastern US hardwood sawmill production languished in near record low territory for the balance of last year and through the first two months of 2021. It was March this year when recovering sawmill production finally broke over the 6B BF mark (annualized) for the month and the end of April when cumulative 2021 production crossed that point.

Prior to last year, monthly Eastern US hardwood sawmill production had been running from well over 7B BF to more than 9B BF (annualized). The good news for the supply strained marketplace is sawmill capacity is in place for production to hit those levels again. Also, sawmills are motivated to increase production. But, of course, sawmills have had difficulties pulling in enough logs and labor to boost capacity utilization substantially. Like any business, sawmill operations are working the problems, and they have squeezed out some additional volume. But while the increases are enough to acknowledge progress is being made, they have not been enough to cover the Oak strip flooring market’s needs so far.

Raw material and labor shortages are the exact same issues preventing meaningful increases in Oak strip flooring production. And as with lumber, Oak strip flooring is experiencing strong to growing demand, which is exacerbating supply strains that fuel higher finished goods sales prices. This week’s information pushes up all of the Oak strip flooring listings and ranges.

The vast majority of the Oak strip flooring listings and range figures are increased this week. The only item requiring no adjustment is 3¼” No. 2Com Red Oak. Over time, price differences between Oak strip flooring manufactured in the Appalachian and Southern regions have essentially disappeared. Even price gaps that usually exist between the same Red and White Oak items have tightened or closed. All of this highlights strong demand and inadequate supplies to accommodate demand.

While the marketplace does not feel effects of recovering supply, recovery can be identified and measured. First, seasonal weather conditions are breaking toward warmer, drier patterns. This is conducive to harvesting more logs to produce more lumber that will have optimal drying conditions. Second, higher lumber prices are funding increased lumber production. HMR has written extensively about financial strain on sawmills stemming from the US/China trade war and China’s weak economy before COVID-19 took its toll on business. Having cash is critical for sawmills to participate in this market upturn.

Lastly, sawmill production is, indeed, increasing. Successive gains occurred in eight of the last nine months, with severe winter weather setting back production in February. Sawmill output in March 2021 was the highest in 13 months and ended 42.4% higher than the historical low point in May 2020. Even then, March sawmill production is not where the marketplace needs it to be. Current demand growth and inventory replacement could require sawmill production to ramp up to Q3 and Q4 2019 levels. Notably, enough capacity is in place if needed. At that point, mills must increase log supplies and overcome labor and transportation constraints.

International Comments

GENERAL

Comments from 4/30/21

April was another good month for North American hardwood lumber exports, according to most sales contacts. However, many also indicate low supplies and transportation issues are holding back what could otherwise be stronger growth. Sawmill production has gained some momentum, but any meaningful additional volumes have not had enough time for processing from green to kiln dried. For now, availability is low for most species, with White Oak and Walnut supplies the most strained. Also, exporters are struggling with container shortages, rolled vessel bookings, and higher freight rates.

Most Far East markets are performing reasonably well. Almost 70% of exporters describe Chinese demand as good or strong; that number is over 80% for Vietnam. White Oak and Poplar are the dominant US species in Vietnamese markets, but both are in low supply. Meanwhile, business has reportedly improved to Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand.

Reports about Mexican markets are more upbeat than in recent months. Contacts indicate demand has increased from both Mexican secondary manufacturers that export goods to the US and also from distribution yards in the interior of the country.

Exporters are readily selling Fas White Oak to several European markets, with buyers wanting more. Contacts report mixed results in trying to move other species to Europe. Poplar is in good demand, and Red Oak, Ash, and Walnut are selling at a steady pace.

The US exported 111.4 MMBF of hardwood lumber in February, which was a 12% increase over last February. Total shipments the first two months of the year were up 3% over 2020. Notably, seven of the top eight export species registered year to date gains through February. Cherry and Maple performed the best in that regard, with respective increases of 28% and 27%. Meanwhile, Poplar exports were down 21% on the year.

In 2020, hardwood log exports to China edged up 2%, but combined exports to other markets tumbled 22%. That pattern also held true in early 2021. During the first two months of 2021, year on year shipments increased 11% to China, but declined 19% to all other destinations and 9% in total.

A 44% year on year increase in hardwood lumber exports to China in February pushed year to date volume 12% past the 2020 pace. Conversely, shipments to Vietnam trailed last year by 23% in February and 11% on the year. Combined year to date exports to the next six largest Far East markets were off 3%, with Indonesia recording the largest jump (+28%) and Malaysia the largest drop (-26%).

February exports of 20.2 MMBF to Canada were the highest for that month since 2014, and shipments to Mexico reached a six year high for February, at 9.7 MMBF.

The US shipped 5% less hardwood lumber to the EU27+UK the first two months of 2021 than the same period in 2020. Shipments increased to the UK (+4%) and Germany (+8%) but declined to Italy (-12%) and Spain (-8%).