Appalachian Comments

Comments from 11/29/2024

Most area sawmills, concentration yards, distribution companies, and secondary wood products manufacturers did not operate on Thanksgiving or the day after. What is more, operations in states where hunting is underway had at least some employees off on other days. Logging during deer hunting season brings greater risk to already dangerous work. Therefore, production, sales, and shipments of hardwood lumber were quite slow this week. This year is essentially completed, with no more than three full weeks remaining. For the most part, business has not been kind to the hardwood lumber industry. However, contacts have made progress with controlling raw material costs and express a bit more optimism about potential improvement in 2025.

ASH

Several factors are constraining sawmill production of this species, including the continued spread of Emerald Ash Borer and 20% growth in Ash log exports this year. However, more than anything else, a broad decline in logging activity resulting from weak overall demand for hardwoods has stemmed sawmill production. Concentration yards with export programs are consistently engaging sawmills with orders for green Ash, though other markets are quiet. Exports are sustaining kiln dried Ash sales despite narrowing domestic demand. All of the green and kiln dried price listings and ranges are unchanged this week.

BASSWOOD

Sales contacts indicate that customers are showing little interest in this species. End-users in the window coverings and moulding/millwork sectors are consuming less than in the past. Some attribute this to increased use of engineered wood and non wood raw materials in place of Basswood. Others cite sluggish demand for finished goods as the cause. Sawmills and loggers have responded to these market circumstances by sharply lowering production, which has alleviated price pressure. Previous reductions have all of the published green and kiln dried figures in order.

BEECH

CHERRY

Whereas Cherry was once highly favored by designers, architects, specifiers, and consumers in North America and several international markets, arguably as much as or more than White Oak is now, that is not the case today. The only country in which this species seems to have appeal is China. However, demand from China is down amid weakness in its economy and housing markets. Notwithstanding these circumstances, most sales operations are not flush with Cherry lumber because far less is being made than in the past. Pricing information obtained this week keeps the green and kiln dried listings and ranges intact.

HICKORY

HARD MAPLE

Shipments of Hard Maple slowed during the week of Thanksgiving. Larger cabinet and wood component manufacturers are well supplied and have moderated purchases from earlier in the year. This has disproportionately affected the common grades more than the upper grades. At the same time, Fas shipments to distribution yards are holding up well since many smaller cabinet companies, which are usually served by distribution yards, are busy. Sales of #2A and #3A to residential wood flooring plants in the US are quite slow. Green Hard Maple prices in observed transactions are mostly grouped around the listings. Likewise, the kiln dried listings and ranges accurately reflect recently reported prices.

SOFT MAPLE

Most grades and thicknesses of this species are not moving particularly well. Demand for Sap&Btr #1C is tepid, at best. Unselected #1C and all color selections of #2A are attracting limited interest. Brown and wormy Soft Maple are performing poorly. Conversely, green Fas&1f and kiln dried Fas Soft Maple are selling well. Downward adjustments to the common grades and increases to the upper grades in recent weeks have all of the green and kiln dried listings and ranges in order.

#2&3A OAK

Flooring plants are not showing much urgency with #2A&3A Red and White Oak procurement at present. Business has perked up a bit for residential flooring manufacturers, but there is not a lot of confidence for sustained longer-term improvement. As such, most are operating under the assumption that on hand supplies combined with ongoing receipts will be sufficient to sustain operations for the foreseeable future. That is even truer for truck trailer flooring producers, which are contending with slumping sales. Reductions made earlier this month have the #2A&3A Red Oak and White Oak listings in order.

RED OAK

Demand for green #1C&Btr Red Oak is solid, according to sawmill operators. However, mills are experiencing sagging #2A&3A sales to flooring plants. Prices are firm for #1C&Btr but soft for #2A&3A, though all of the listings stay intact. Demand for kiln dried #1C&Btr Red Oak is good, with #2A activity flat. Exports are driving almost all of the momentum. Chinese buyers have become more assertive with purchases of late. Exporters attribute the upturn to concerns about a potential trade skirmish between the two countries once the Trump Administration takes office. Another, less speculative position is Chinese buyers are shoring up inventories ahead of yearend holidays and the Chinese New Year celebration beginning in the latter part of January. Also, it is important to note that Appalachian Red Oak continues to gain traction in Europe and Australia. No changes are warranted to the kiln dried price figures at this time.

WHITE OAK

Demand for kiln dried White Oak far surpassed supplies throughout the first half of 2024. However, circumstances have gradually changed since the spring, when more White Oak logs began to flow into sawmills amid slower log purchasing by the stave industry. Reduced consumption by residential and truck trailer flooring factories has also played a role in bringing overall supply and demand into closer balance. At this point, White Oak is moving well in North America and to a host of overseas markets. However, the supply/demand gap has closed for most items except rift sawn White Oak. Prices in observed business did not change much this week; all of the green and kiln dried listings and ranges hold steady.

POPLAR

Sawmills are having little to no difficulty moving all developing green #2A&Btr Poplar. In fact, mills are sometimes fielding multiple offers for their production, particularly Fas&1f. Prices are firm, but repeated increases in recent week have all of the green listings in order. Demand for kiln dried Poplar is good in the US, Vietnam, and Mexico. Fas is attracting the most interest domestically, while the common grades are more sought after in Vietnam and Mexico. The listings and ranges accurately reflect reported prices.

WALNUT

Market conditions for this species are consistent with a week ago. Green Walnut is moving well at steady to higher prices, though the listings warrant no further changes at this time. Demand and pricing for kiln dried Walnut vary widely based on grade, thickness, color,
width, and length specifications. Broadly speaking, reported prices show less movement than in previous weeks. All of the listings and ranges stand pat.

FRAMESTOCK, CANTS, TIES, & BOARD ROAD

Shipments of solid hardwood framestock slowed further during this holiday shortened workweek. In very limited activity, prices are little changed, allowing the Oak and Mixed Species ranges to stand.

Most sawmills have enough outlets for developing pallet cants and lumber despite the overall decline in hardwood usage by the pallet industry. Some mills do not, but they are exceptions at this point. Prices for cants are mixed but most are grouped around the listing or otherwise contained within the range.

Most reports point out fair to good demand for 7x9 crossties. Treating operations are in the market for steady quantities of ties. Not only do they need to maintain on hand inventories, but many are also concerned about future availability given current difficulties in the sawmill industry. Reported prices for 7x9 crossties are contained within the respective ranges.

Established board road producers are having little difficulty meeting demand, which is low at this time. No changes are warranted to the board road listing or range.

International Comments

GENERAL

Please see our graphs.